For the record, I've already stamped my schedule prediction for the Houston Texans by projecting a 14-3 finish for the boys in Battle Red. As of today, things look even more assuring for the team.
After further review of Houston's schedule, it appears that the offense in particular has received multiple early Christmas gifts courtesy of the NFL schedule makers. For, when you take a closer look at the litany of teams on the Texans' slate of games, you'll notice that more than half of them fielded porous defenses throughout last season. That could bode well for a unit that wants to take a quantum scoring leap in 2026.
Texans' offense will face several anemic defenses from 2025
For starters, Houston will still have to deal with their fair share of stingy defenses from last season. Categorized based on their end of season rankings from top-five to top-15, they are:
Top-Five defenses from 2025
- Cleveland Browns (283.6 YPG, fourth-best)
- Los Angeles Chargers (285.2 YPG, fifth-best)
Top-10 defenses from 2025
- Buffalo Bills (293.1 YPG, seventh-best)
Top-15 defenses from 2025
- Jacksonville Jaguars (303.6 YPG, 11th-best)
- Green Bay Packers (311.8 YPG, 12th-best)
- Philadelphia Eagles (314.2 YPG, 13th-best)
Out of Houston's 14 different opponents, these represent a combined 42.8% of scheduled opponents in 2026. Also out of these, the Texans already defeated three of them last season (Chargers, Bills, Jaguars).
Then, the schedule turns our collective attention to the final eight clubs that Houston has on the docket, which would make up 57.1% of their upcoming slate. These teams had defenses that finished with rankings between 21st-32nd in the NFL last season. They include:
Defenses ranked 20th-25th in 2025
- Tennessee Titans (345.1 YPG, 21st)
- Indianapolis Colts (349.8 YPG, 23rd)
- Baltimore Ravens (354.5 YPG, 24th)
Defenses ranked 26th-30th in 2025
- Pittsburgh Steelers (356.9 YPG, 26th)
- New York Giants (359.5 YPG, 28th)
- Dallas Cowboys (377.0 YPG, 30th)
Bottom-two defenses in 2025
- Bengals (380.9 YPG, 31st)
- Commanders (384.0 YPG, 32nd)
Between these eight franchises, they allowed a combined average of 363.4 yards per game, and 26.2 points per game. Additionally, the Texans already beat four of them last season (Titans, Colts, Ravens, Steelers).
While most of these teams have made adjustments to either their defensive scheme or personnel makeup (or both) by this point in the offseason, a wholesale jump to the top of the defensive metrics charts doesn't just happen all the time. There's a very real chance that these units will still have to slog their way through their respective schedules as they continue to build on their improvement plans. In the meantime, Houston's 18th-ranked offense from last season has every opportunity to feast on a smorgasbord of vulnerability in their 25th-anniversary season.
Houston's offense can improve in standing from last year
In 2025, the Texans ended their campaign with the 18th-best total offense (327 YPG), which included them being 13th-best in scoring (23.8 PPG, with thanks to their defense). Keep in mind, this was also while facing a schedule that featured six top-12 total defenses, as well as seven that landed in the top-12 in scoring prevention.
Then, you have the fact that they were in year one of the new offensive scheme of offensive coordinator Nick Caley. As a whole, them faring as well as they did given the circumstances gives all the more reason why one can project a sizeable jump in production with a less severe collection of defenses.
With the added security of multiple new additions and an extra offseason of tutelege in the new scheme, don't be surprised if an offensive surge helps to propel Houston to greater heights in 2026.
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