Skepticism still abounds over the expectations of the Houston Texans' offensive unit heading into year two of the Nick Caley experience (offensive coordinator). Specifically, fans and local media have their collective gaze fixed upon quarterback C.J. Stroud and his continued development in his fourth year as an NFL signal caller.
Various signs have pointed to a Stroud that's had the best offseason training program of his career thus far. However, the memory of his meltdown in Houston's 28-16 debacle of a loss in New England last year is still fresh on the minds of those who assume the worst of trajectory.
Sports Illustrated's Matt Verderame won't be counted among that number though, as he recently ranked every NFL team's offense based on the strength of their respective "Triplets". For Houston, he gave a surprisingly optimistic ranking, considering the aforementioned dark cloud of negative expectations from the masses.
Houston Texans' offensive triplets receive strong ranking according to Sports Illustrated
Coming in at number 14 on the list, Verderame considers Stroud, running back David Montgomery and wide receiver Nico Collins as candidates for a Super Bowl-caliber year if things break their way.
Verderame goes into detail by writing,
"We’re putting our faith in Stroud, who, despite playing with porous offensive lines for much of his first three seasons, has helped the Texans reach the divisional round each year. However, Stroud has seen his yardage and touchdown numbers dip every season, and in the playoffs last year, he threw five interceptions and fumbled five times before losing to the Patriots. If Stroud can find the best version of himself, he and the Texans are Super Bowl-caliber."
Much of Verderame's prognostication has been repeated ad nauseum among members of the fan base ever since the final whistle sounded on their Super Bowl hopes last season. The events of this past AFC playoffs helped spur on the most offense-centric offseason for general manager Nick Caserio and co. since Stroud himself debuted in 2023.
With the addition of at least five offensive linemen, a trade for Montgomery and a pay raise for Collins, Houston has stamped this upcoming year as a de facto "Lombardi or bust" campaign (keep in mind, this is also an offense that finished last year at 18th-overall in yards per game).
With that said, a 14th-overall ranking should be looked at as a high compliment out of the gate from Verderame. It's made all the more notable when you consider the pedigree of teams who he has behind Houston on his list.
Houston ranks above several high-quality teams according to SI ranking
According to Verderame, his money is best bet on the Texans' offense surpassing the likes of:
- Indianapolis Colts (QB Daniel Jones, RB Jonathan Taylor, WR Alec Pierce) - 25th overall
- Jacksonville Jaguars (QB Trevor Lawrence, RB Bhayshul Tuten, WR Jakobi Meyers) - 22nd overall
- Denver Broncos (QB Bo Nix, RB J.K. Dobbins, WR Jaylen Waddle) - 19th overall
- Green Bay Packers (QB Jordan Love, RB Josh Jacobs, TE Tucker Kraft) - 18th overall
- Seattle Seahawks (QB Sam Darnold, RB Jadarian Price, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba) - 16th overall
This includes teams in 2025 who put up historic offensive numbers, became conference championship contenders, won the AFC South and ultimately won the Super Bowl itself.
Then, Verderame has Houston only one spot lower then the AFC-winning New England Patriots, who finished last season with the NFL's second-best scoring offense.
While 14th is definitely a compliment at this point in their offensive installation, a top-10 unit will get them much closer to their ultimate goal of competing for a spot at SoFi Stadium at the end of this upcoming season.
The games aren't played on the internet, so it's not like the AFC can be won or lost with online rankings. However, the gradual build of positive sentiment regarding Stroud and the Texans' offense bodes well for the kind of offseason work that the team has put in out of preparation for the team's 25th anniversary season.
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