By now it's likely you have heard about the false report that quarterback C.J. Stroud asked the Houston Texans for $70 million per year on the extension the two sides have started to discuss. $70 million sounds crazy because it is a full $6 million per year over the current highest-paid player in the NFL, Patrick Mahomes. It's also $15 million per year richer than the 3rd-8th highest paid signal-callers in the game.
Stroud is a promising young quarterback. He deserves a strong contract that will put him in the top third of the league in salary per year. But, $70 million is a bridge or more too far. But it's not too much for the position.
The league can support a $70 million quarterback
A $70 million APY would be 23.2% of this year's $301.2 million salary cap. There are six contracts that eclipse that amount according to Over The Cap - and three of them are active deals. The quarterback market has stalled in recent years, until the Mahomes contract earlier this offseason. That stagnation makes $70 million seem like a big number. But when you adjust for the salary cap, Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow all have deals that accounted for more of their team's salary cap at the time of signing.
So $70 million isn't outlandish for a quarterback due to the growth rate of the NFL's revenues, and as a byproduct, the growth of the salary cap itself. But a case for Stroud to be that guy would be flimsy on it's face. Which is why I am confident that was never an ask. But I do think he has a case for being in the high fifties. And I think the team has a stronger case to bring that number to the low fifties.
C.J. Stroud's most generous comp would be comparing his last two years to the two years that preceded Jordan Love's four-year, $220 million contract.
Player | Yds | TD | INT | BTT | TWP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
C.J. Stroud 2024 - 2025 | 6,727 | 39 | 19 | 36 | 31 |
Jordan Love 2022 - 2023 | 5,674 | 43 | 15 | 46 | 23 |
All stats derived from Pro Football Focus.
Love signed his deal when the salary cap was $255.4 million. A comparable deal on this year's salary cap would be almost $65 million. The reality of the current landscape is that Stroud would not be able to argue a similar cap share deal and would most likely just benchmark off of Love's APY. Call it a $57 million APY request.
The Texans' Counter Offer
Even if Stroud's request is substantially more modest than that highly publicized $70 million figure, you can lay odds to evens that the team is going to counter offer at a slightly lower figure.
NFL contract negotiations are steeped in comps and the Texans could create a strong case that Stroud's price lies at the midpoint of Brock Purdy's 2025 deal and Baker Mayfield's 2024 contract.
Player | Yards | TD | INT | BTT | TWP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
C.J. Stroud 2023 - 2025 | 10,410 | 60 | 27 | 56 | 47 |
Brock Purdy 2022 - 2024 | 10,881 | 66 | 32 | 50 | 48 |
Baker Mayfield 2021 - 2023 | 10,078 | 64 | 30 | 58 | 60 |
Interestingly, while Stroud is probably benchmarking Love's APY, the team can use cap share for their counter. That midpoint would translate into a $48 million APY.
I doubt there's any world where Stroud would agree to a sub $50 million valuation, but Houston starting there can help keep the eventual compromise a bit lower than otherwise. I am projecting that compromise at $52.5 million per year over four years, with $155 million guaranteed, of which $115 million is fully guaranteed.
The fascinating part of all of this is how Houston has been proactive in getting deals done for other stars at price tags that set the market. Both Derek Stingley Jr. and Will Anderson Jr. have reset their positional markets just this offseason. Perhaps Houston is willing to trade a bigger APY for an earlier deal to help keep cash flows lower.
If Houston follows a similar trajectory with Stroud, I could see them accepting his $57 million offer on its face. In terms of percent of cap share, they'd actually be getting a discount relative to many of his contemporaries, while taking advantage of the two cost-controlled years he already has under contract to keep those aforementioned cash flows under $50 million per year.
Earlier this offseason, I conjectured that Stroud could command upwards of $61.5 million per year. But that was based on an expectation that the quarterback market would move more than it has. Yes, Mahomes was able to set a new record at the top, but behind him, there has been little to no movement. Specifically, Baker Mayfield and the Bucs were unable to come to an agreement on a deal for him. That was the contract that I thought could help Stroud make the case for $60 million or more.
Without that deal, the Texans are in better shape to keep Stroud in the low to mid 50s. If that's the case, then it's understandable that C.J. wants to wait until after this year to push his number higher.
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