Across the previous two entries of my Houston Texans 2026 schedule prediction pieces, I projected for the team to finish week nine with a 7-1 record. To recap, their opponents and margins of victory were:
First Quarter predictions (Weeks 1-4)
- Week 1 - vs. Buffalo Bills: Texans win 26-19
- Week 2 - vs. Cincinnati Bengals: Texans win 23-20
- Week 3 - vs. Indianapolis Colts: Texans win 24-13
- Week 4 - vs. Dallas Cowboys: Texans win 27-23
Second quarter predictions (Weeks 5-9)
- Week 5 - vs. Tennessee Titans: Texans win 32-17
- Week 6 - vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jaguars win 24-21
- Week 7 - vs. New York Giants: Texans win 30-12
- Week 8 - BYE Week
- Week 9 - vs. Los Angeles Chargers: Texans win 18-10
In the third quarter of the 2026 season (weeks 10-13), the Texans will face a slate featuring the Cleveland Browns, Indianapolis Colts (again), Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers. This will also be the beginning of Houston's most difficult stretch of games, as the latter portion of the schedule contains six consecutive contests that include teams that've made the playoffs at least once within the last two seasons (Ravens, Steelers, Washington Commanders, Jaguars, Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers).
Not to fret though, because at the end of this section of the calendar I actually have the Texans almost matching their best start after 12 games in franchise history (the legendary 2012 unit was 11-1 after 12 games, which is the all-time best mark).
Week 10: Houston Texans vs. Cleveland Browns
- All time history: Texans lead 8-7 (including one postseason game)
- Last matchup: AFC Wildcard Round of 2023-2024, Texans won 45-14
- Predicted outcome: Texans win 21-13
- Record after week nine: 8-1
The Texans and Browns have had a complicated recent history between the two. They were trade partners in one of the most seismic transactions in NFL history in 2022 (quarterback Deshaun Watson), which then led to the two franchises heading in two completely different directions. From that point on, the Texans have gone 35-32-1 with three consecutive AFC Divisional round berths, while the Browns have gone 26-42 with only one AFC playoff berth in the 2023-2024 season. The outcome? A 45-14 blowout victory courtesy of the Texans.
Houston has lost the last four regular season matchups against Cleveland. That changes this time around. The Texans and their prolific defense will finally break the streak against the Browns and their yet-to-be-determined quarterback situation in 2026.
Week 11: Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts (TNF)
(*Stats will reflect the predicted Texans victory from week three of this season)
- All time history: Colts lead 33-16-1 (including one postseason game)
- Last matchup: Week 3 of 2026-2027, Texans won 24-13
- Predicted outcome: Texans win 28-21
- Record after week six: 9-1
The Texans round the first round of this two-game divisional series by a margin of 24-13 in week three. That was with consideration that Colts quarterback Daniel Jones would still be somewhat hampered by his recovery from a ruptured achilles suffered late last season.
This time around, I see Houston's offensive identity beginning to finally round into form. Thus, they'll almost put up a 30-burger against the Colts' defense a proceed to sweep their divisional counterparts for the third team in as many seasons.
Week 12: Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens
- All time history: Ravens lead Texans 13-3 (including two postseason games)
- Last matchup: Week 5 of 2025-2026, Texans won 44-10
- Predicted outcome: Ravens win 23-20
- Record after week six: 9-2
Full disclosure, this is both difficult and mildly annoying to type, as I'm resisting a lot of homerism to make this prediction. However, I strive to be objective and give credit where it's due. This is one of the most lopsided matchups in Houston's 25-year history, as Baltimore is a stellar 13-3 all-time against them. The Texans are an abysmal 0-5 against the Ravens in games where quarterback Lamar Jackson starts, and 1-5 in all games total since his debut late in the 2018-2019 season.
The Texans will be facing a motivated Ravens team that wants some payback for last season's 44-10 beatdown at M&T Bank Stadium when Jackson was on the mend due to an injury. Unfortunately, I think it happens here, with Houston dropping this one 23-20 in a sloppy contest. Ugh.
Week 13: Houston Texans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (SNF)
- All time history: Steelers lead Texans 5-4 (including one postseason game)
- Last matchup: AFC WildCard Round of 2025-2026, Texans won 30-6
- Predicted outcome: Texans win 31-17
- Record after week six: 10-2
Ah, a palate cleanser. After a disappointing loss against the Ravens the week prior, the Texans head to Acrisure Stadium in week 13 to take on another AFC North squad in the Steelers. We all witnessed their last match-up together, as it came via a 30-6 defensive masterpiece in favor of Houston in last season's AFC Wildcard round.
With recent confirmation that quarterback Aaron Rodgers will be returning to Pittsburgh to play in what might be his last season ever, Houston is offered a chance to finally help put an end to signal callers legendary NFL career in 2026. It's sad to see one of the all-time greats finish his career with only one Super Bowl win, but that's just how the league works out sometimes. Alas, I have Houston walking away with a 31-17 victory this time, due to another defensive clinic and now an improved offensive output by quarterback C.J. Stroud and co.
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