![Houston Texans running back Woody Marks (27) runs upfield during the third quarter between the Houston Texans and the Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday September 21, 2025 at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla. The Jaguars defeated the Texans 17-10. [Doug Engle/Florida Times-Union]](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/c_crop,x_0,y_104,w_2886,h_1623/c_fill,w_720,ar_16:9,f_auto,q_auto,g_auto/images/ImagnImages/mmsport/10/01krt1cys2dp7vw1hyz5.jpg "Houston Texans running back Woody Marks (27) runs upfield during the third quarter between the Houston Texans and the Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday September 21, 2025 at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla. The Jaguars defeated the Texans 17-10. [Doug Engle/Florida Times-Union]")
In the first part of my Houston Texans 2026 schedule prediction series, I projected a 4-0 opening stretch for the team. This includes wins against the Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Indianapolis Colts and Dallas Cowboys from early September to very early October.
For the second four-game set, they'll face opponents in the Tennessee Titans, Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Giants and Los Angeles Chargers (with a bye week wedged in between the Giants and Chargers). This time around, I'll actually be penciling in Houston's first loss of the season, and this being to a divisional opponent. Though it may be typed begrudgingly, this is an attempt at some level of objectively in spite of a very strong pull towards outright homerism.
Week 5: Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans
- All time history: Texans and Titans tied 24-24
- Last matchup: Week 11 of 2025-2026, Texans won 16-13
- Predicted outcome: Texans win 32-17
- Record after week five: 5-0
Dating back to the 2022-2023 season, the Texans have won six out of the last eight games against the Titans. This includes being victors of the last three in a row since the latter half of the 2024-2025 season. To their credit, the Titans have made several key roster additions this offseason in players like rookie wide receiver Carnell Tate, rookie linebacker Anthony Hill, defensive tackle John Franklin-Myers and defensive end Jermaine Johnson.
Even still, the Tennessee still finished as the fourth-worst team in the NFL and have a lot of work to do to become a legitimate threat in the AFC in the near future. They may give the Texans a tough time in the early goings of this contest, but I can see Houston pulling off in the second half similar to how they did in their 26-0 romping of the Titans in week four of last season.
Week 6: Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (Wembley)
- All time history: Texans lead Jaguars 32-16
- Last matchup: Week 10 of 2025-2026, Texans won 36-29
- Predicted outcome: Jaguars win 24-21
- Record after week six: 5-1
Facing off at Wembley Stadium for the second time since 2019, the Texans and Jaguars will do battle for an early divisional tiebreaker advantage in week six. The last time they played each other, backup quarterback Davis Mills ran in the go-ahead touchdown for Houston late in the fourth quarter. This was followed by a fumble by Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence on the following drive that led to a 32-yard scoop and score by Texans defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins.
The two teams have split season matchups twice in the last three seasons (2023, 2025), along with their last five matchups being decided by one possession. In this case, seeing as though London is the Jaguars' unofficial 'home away from home', and seeing as though Houston got the best of Jacksonville in such a catastrophic way last time, this one might land in the Jaguars' favor. It definitely could come down to the wire, but the Texans ultimately fall short in their first stand-alone game of the season.
Week 7: Houston Texans vs. New York Giants
- All time history: Giants lead Texans 5-1
- Last matchup: Week 10 of 2022-2023, Giants won 24-16
- Predicted outcome: Texans win 30-12
- Record after week seven: 6-1
At some point, the Texans have to turn the tables on this one-sided battle between themselves and the Giants. After beating the Giants 16-14 in their inaugural season (2002), Houston proceeded to lose the last five consecutive contests from 2006-2022.
This is the best chance for the Texans to get a little payback on the Giants, as they'll be coming with last season's best defense and a much improved offensive gameplan (hopefully). Keep in mind, they're doing so against a unit who was the fifth-worst team in the league last year. This will be a golden opportunity for Houston's defense to once again flex its muscles, considering they'll be matched up against an electric duo in Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart and running back Cam Skattebo.
Week 9: Houston Texans vs. Los Angeles Chargers
- All time history: Chargers lead Texans 6-5 (including one postseason game)
- Last matchup: Week 17 of 2025-2026, Texans won 20-16
- Predicted outcome: Texans win 18-10
- Record after week nine: 7-1
The Texans have won four of their last five matchups against the Chargers since the 2019-2020 season. This includes Houston being 3-1 in the era of Justin Herbert at quarterback.
What makes things better for Houston is that they've dominated the Charges via double-digit victories in two of their last three meetings. It arguably could've been three-straight had it not been for complications with penalties in their last matchup in week 17 of last season.
Even though the immediate past doesn't guarantee a victory for the Texans, it's still a great indicator of the kind of outcome one can comfortably predict heading into 2026. With last year's best defense and a motivated signal caller in C.J. Stroud, I can see the Texans winning a low-scoring affair by protecting the football and converting key third downs late to salt the game away.
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