NFL oddsmakers have set the Houston Texans' win total at 9.5 for the upcoming season, mirroring their success from the past two years.
Following an impressive 2023-24 season, in which they finished with a 10-7 record, won the AFC South Division title, and won a playoff game—all during DeMeco Ryans' first year as head coach and CJ Stroud and Will Anderson Jr. rookie campaigns—the Texans entered the 2024-25 season with high expectations.
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However, in spite of a sophomore slump from Stroud, poor offensive line performance, and injuries to the receiving corps, the Texans still managed to replicate the previous year's success. Next year, the roster will look different, but will the success be the same?
For starters, the team's already weak offensive line became even weaker after trading away last year's team captain, five-time Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil, and former first-round offensive lineman Kenyon Green to the Washington Commanders and the Philadelphia Eagles, respectively. In return, Houston got a third-round pick in the upcoming and a second-round pick in next year's draft for Tunsil. They also received Super Bowl-winning safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson and a 2026 sixth-round pick from Philly in exchange for Green and a fifth-round pick for this year's draft.
In ESPN draft expert Matt Miller's latest mock draft, he has the Texans selecting Ohio State's offensive tackle Josh Simmons. Regardless of Simmons' talent, Houston still will need help protecting Stroud, who is entering year three, and last year's Pro Bowl running back Joe Mixon.
The Texans also lost two-time All-Pro and four-time Pro Bowl receiver Stefon Diggs to free agency. Truth be told, Diggs did look promising for the Texans before tearing his ACL. In eight games with Houston, Diggs, who recently signed a three-year deal worth $69 million, including $26 million guaranteed, with the New England Patriots, recorded 47 receptions for 496 yards and three touchdowns.
Even with Diggs moving on, the Texans' receiving corps is still in fantastic shape. They've got a healthy Nico Collins, who lit up the field last season with 68 receptions, racking up 1,006 yards and seven touchdowns in just 12 games, earning himself a well-deserved spot in the Pro Bowl. They still have John Metchie III, a promising young talent who made quite the impression when he had his chances last year.
The Texans also acquired Christian Kirk, a dynamic 1,000-yard receiver from the Jacksonville Jaguars. Along with Justin Watson, a dependable wide receiver with championship experience, from the Kansas City Chiefs and added speedster Braxton Berrios from the Miami Dolphins.
On the other side of the ball, the Texans improved a ton. They already have Anderson Jr. They have extended All-Pro cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. to a record-breaking three-year, $90 million contract with $89 million in guarantees, making Stingley the highest-paid cornerback in NFL history on an average annual value basis. They've extended defensive end Danielle Hunter on a one-year, $35.6 million contract. They added safety Gardner-Johnson and signed defensive end Darrell Taylor from the Chicago Bears.
With all the new roster moves, the only question for the Texans is whether they can bring everything together. The odds makers say it is a possibility, but will they progress or regress this season?