NFL free agency has been open for two weeks now, and several franchises have given themselves immediate upgrades heading into the 2026 season. Count the Houston Texans as one of the most prominent in that category, as they have finalized at least 18 different transactions (trades, re-signings, acquisitions, extensions) in efforts to finally build a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
From trading for running back David Montgomery, to signing All-Pro guard Wyatt Teller and even Super Bowl winning safety Reed Blankenship, general manager Nick Caserio and head coach DeMeco Ryans have demonstrated the required urgency to make strides toward that endeavor. Along the way, winning the AFC South has to be part of the equation, as division winners always go on to host at least one home game in the playoffs.
That’s something that the Texans have been recently accustomed to anyway, as they have won the AFC South twice in the last three seasons, and five times out of the last 10 (Jacksonville Jaguars - 3/10, Tennessee Titans - 2/10, Indianapolis Colts - 0/10).
Now, going into the fourth year of Houston’s new era, along with this offseason’s litany of upgrades, they seem primed to yet again take the top spot in the division and position themselves to make a deeper run in the AFC playoff picture.
The oddsmakers agree, as DraftKings, Fanduel and BetMGM have Houston as the predicted favorite to take the crown.
Texans are odds on favorite to win the AFC South in 2026
As of March 22nd, the Texans are predicted to win the AFC South at 42.6% and with odds of:
TEAM | DRAFTKINGS | FANDUEL | BETMGM |
|---|---|---|---|
TEXANS | +135 | +160 | +160 |
JAGUARS | +195 | +190 | +175 |
COLTS | +400 | +270 | +350 |
TITANS | +750 | +950 | +800 |
This comes after Jaguars head coach Liam Coen helped lead the team to a 13-4 record last season, which beat out the Texans’ 12-5 mark for the division. However, the Texans made it to the Divisional round after defeating the Pittsburgh Steelers, while the Jaguars fell at home to the Buffalo Bills in the WIldcard round, which somewhat taints the perception of Jacksonville in any conversation about true AFC contenders.
The Indianapolis Colts looked like the best team in the conference after they leaped out to an 8-2 record to start the season. However, major injuries to quarterback Daniel Jones and star cornerback Sauce Gardner altered their trajectory and the team ultimately crated to an 8-9 record (ending on a seven-game losing streak).
The Tennessee Titans finished as the worst in the division, and the fourth-worst overall, with a 3-14 record. Needless to say, quarterback Cam Ward and new head coach Robert Saleh have plenty of catching up to do just to be competitive in the AFC.
Even without hoisting a Lombardi trophy in February, Houston had the best season of the four as a whole, and are the most equipped for an encore performance starting this September.
Texans have the best “current outlook” for 2026
Houston goes in 2026 with the NFL’s best defense, a revamped offensive line, an upgraded secondary, improved rushing personnel, several premium draft selections and a bitter taste to remove after the abomination that was their 28-16 collapse against the New England Patriots in Foxborough.
Quarterback C.J. Stroud and offensive coordinator Nick Caley in particular should be especially motivated, given the fact their tandem was seen as one of the most problematic in the entire league in 2025. Stroud in particular will ideally be playing with a five-alarm fire lit underneath him after the role he played in their playoff miscues last season (seven total turnovers in only two games).
He has a lot to prove in year four, for the sake of his long-term fit in Houston, his financial security and his overall reputation as one of the best young signal-callers in the game.
With all this in mind, and with more potential roster improvements on the horizon, my money would be on the Texans to establish their dominance early in 2026 and inevitably be the best team in the AFC South for the sixth time in 11 seasons.