After the Houston Texans released their first unofficial depth chart of the preseason, much speculation has begun over what the final 53-man roster may shape up to look like.
There have been several standout rookies like cornerback Collin Wright, tight end Marlin Klein and Houston's 26th-overall pick in guard/center Keylan Rutledge. Likewise, veterans like linebacker Henry To'oTo'o, safety Calen Bullock and even wide receiver Jared Wayne have seemingly stepped up their game and have stacked multiple days' worth of plays while in camp.
Unfortunately, everyone can't make the roster. The Texans ultimately have to trim down their personnel to the final 53 by 6:00 p.m. EST on the NFL's mandated deadline day of Sunday, August 30th. With that in mind, here is my most recent attempt at a 53-man roster projection for the Texans ahead of their first preseason game against the Los Angeles Chargers this Thursday (my second swing since my first projection in early July).
For this edition, we'll be focusing on the offensive side of the football only. Additionally, there will also be a brief breakdown of my reasoning for my selections for each position group.
Houston Texans 53-man roster projection (Offense only)
(2) Quarterbacks: C.J. Stroud, Davis Mills
The verdict: C.J. Stroud is the undisputed starting quarterback of this team. He's looked decisive in training camp, and he has a massive opportunity to beat the league-wide allegations of his "demise". Davis Mills yet again is the trustworthy backup option in the event of an emergency (or a blowout), while Graham Mertz misses the cut this time due to more pressing needs at other positions.
(3) Running backs: David Montgomery, Woody Marks, Jawhar Jordan
The verdict: It's pretty much chalk to have David Montgomery and Woody Marks as that starting 1-2 combo in the backfield. Jawhar Jordan's performances in training camp have virtually cemented his place in the rotation at RB3. The hand injury to combo back/special teams ace British Brooks complicated the math here, as I would've had him penciled in as RB4/FB. Until there's an update on his status, I'm leaving that spot open for more additions elsewhere.
(6) Wide Receivers: Nico Collins, Jayden Higgins, Xavier Hutchinson, Tank Dell, Lewis Bond, Jaylin Noel
The verdict: I believe that this is where start to see some tough decisions being made in terms of specific roster ordering at a key position. Nico Collins and Jayden Higgins are the top two receiving threats at the moment for the offense, while I have Xavier Hutchinson as the third receiver due to both his potential for a continued breakout under offensive coordinator Nick Caley and a perception of better durability (until further notice) than that of the returning Tank Dell.
Tank Dell lands at WR4 (again, until further notice) as he begins his journey to prove his long-term presence in the offense. Lewis Bond --who's been playing well above that of a sixth-round draft pick-- leapfrogs Jaylin Noel for WR5, as I still have reservations about how the team envisions Noel's place in the offense (aside from being a proficient returner on special teams). If Noel performs well in the preseason in some way, then the order can definitely change.
(4) Tight Ends: Dalton Schultz, Marlin Klein, Foster Moreau, Cade Stover
The verdict: After a career-year last season, Dalton Schultz sits comfortably as the leader heading into his fourth season in Houston. Behind him, I shockingly have the German-born rookie tight end in Marlin Klein as the TE2 after a recent surge of production in camp. Foster Moreau is a reliable veteran who can be trusted to execute his duties as a physical blocker and/or occasional pass catching option at TE3.
WIth Brevin Jordan yet again being unavailable to the team due to a recent knee ailment (after missing the last two seasons with major injuries), I just made the decision to leave him off of the list completely for the time being. As the old sports adage goes, "the best ability, is availability." And for right now, Jordan's "day-to-day" status puts him at risk of being passed over by others at the position the longer his recovery takes.
As far Cade Stover, I actually have him as a tweener in this scenario. With the absence of British Brooks as a depth running back/fullback, Stover could slot in as an emergency blocker in certain run packages. Of course, we'll still have the "Stover Dozer" to utilize in short-yardage situations.
(3) Offensive Tackles: Aireontae Ersery, Trent Brown, Braden Smith
The verdict: While I don't feel the best about leaving swing tackle Blake Fisher off of the depth chart for now, the reality is the Texans have two legitimate options at right tackle in Trent Brown and Braden Smith. With that, the necessity for Fisher is minimized in the short-term (assuming health for both Brown and Smith). As far as positional order, Brown and Smith have gone to war over the right tackle position, as evidenced by the volumes of commentary out of camp over the last week.
Even though Smith just signed a two-year deal to join the team, the goal is to field the best five guys across the offensive line. With that reasoning, most of the available analysis shows Brown as having been the most effective option in the role. For now, I tentatively have Brown as the penciled in starter, which still allows Smith to overtake Brown in the even of a last minute blitz by the former Indianapolis Colt.
(6) Interior Offensive Linemen: Wyatt Teller, Keylan Rutledge, Ed Ingram, Evan Brown, Jarrett Patterson, Febechi Nwaiwu
With gritty rookie Keylan Rutledge seemingly overtaking incumbent starter Jake Andrews for the starting center position, it unfortunately leaves the former New England Patriot as a potential odd man out in the Texans' positional math equation. The remaining players in Evan Brown, Jarrett Patterson and Febechi Nwaiwu offer the team much more flexibility due to the displayed versatiity of each.
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