We're heading into the second round of the playoffs with the Houston Texans set to visit the two-time defending Super Bowl champs, the Kansas City Chiefs.
Kansas City is favored in this one, and they're well-rested after securing a bye week in Round 1. That doesn't mean the Texans can't play spoiler, however. They proved that when they won easily against the Los Angeles Chargers, who were also favored.
Securing another upset would be more likley if the following four bold predictions were to come true.
4. Chiefs held under 60 yards rushing
Isiah Pacheco has battled injuries throughout the season, playing in just seven games. That's left Kareem Hunt as their primary back, although Pacheco is "good to go" for the Divisional Round.
Even with him back, the Chiefs ground game isn't too frightening. He and Hunt each averaged fewer than four yards per attempt, and the team finished 29th in the league at exactly 4.0. On the other side, the Texans were 11th in the NFL in rushing yards surrendered, which is why this bold prediction has them limiting Kansas City to fewer than 60 yards on the ground.
3. Nico Collins tops 125 yards
Kansas City has had a strong run defense all season but they've been susceptible to the pass. When they hosted the Texans in Week 16, Houston had some success with C.J. Stroud going for 244 yards and two touchdowns.
They slowed down when Tank Dell was injured but proved they can hang with the champs.
This weekend, look for Nico Collins to rise to the occasion. After going for 122 yards on seven catches in the Wild Card Round, he tops that with at least 125 yards in this bold prediction.
2. Travis Kelce is a non-factor
This wasn't the typical season for Travis Kelce.
The veteran tight end averaged just 8.5 yards per reception and had three touchdowns. When the two teams met in Week 16, he was limited to 30 yards on five receptions.
Even with a larger spotlight due to the magnitude of the playoff game, look for the Texans to keep Kelce from making an impact once again. This defense is playing with supreme confidence and can slow down the 35-year-old.
1. Patrick Mahomes throws 3 picks
Justin Herbert had just three interceptions all season. In the Wild Card Round, the Texans picked him off four times — with Derek Stingley Jr. doing so twice.
Early this season, Patrick Mahomes was throwing picks at an alarming rate but he's had just two since Week 8 and none in his past six games.
That's what makes this one the boldest prediction. Much like they did to Herbert, the Houston defense makes Mahomes look human with three interceptions.