As is the weekly tradition during the regular season, the NFL Youtube channel offered a game picks preview for week one's matchup between the Houston Texans and Buffalo Bills. And as it currently stands, the Texans are seen as the overwhelming favorite to topple quarterback Josh Allen and co. in their latest visit to the Lone Star State.
Utilizing a panel of 10 NFL experts, the sentiment went as follows:
- Colleene Wolfe: Houston Texans, 21-20
- Grant Gordon: Houston Texans, 23-20
- Kevin Patra: Houston Texans, 25-24
- Lance Zierlein: Houston Texans, 20-19
- Bucky Brooks: Houston Texans, 20-17
- Tom Grossi: Houston Texans, 16-14
- Brandon Perna: Buffalo Bills, 21-10
- Nick Shook: Houston Texans, 23-21
- Brooke Cersosimo: Houston Texans, 24-21
- Dan Parr: Houston Texans, 24-21
Besides Perna, the rest of the field unanimously agreed that Houston would be the more viable option to be a winning candidate once the two sides do battle from Reliant Stadium.
However, there was also a troubling trend to the predictions that made me stop and pause. Even in projected victories, the Texans would only be winning by the slimmest of margins against the Bills (and they'd be blown out if Perna's prediction is correct).
The Houston Texans are seen as overwhelming favorites, but only by the skin of their teeth
There are several categories of observations to be made from this panel's collective prognostication.
Texans win by less than a field goal
In only four of the nine total Texans votes did Houston win this matchup by a field goal (three points). The other five--thus being the majority--declared that the home team would essentially escape the contest within a margin of only 1-2 points. The could mean any of the folling scenarios:
- The Texans' offense fails to find its footing against Jim Leonhard's defense (Bills defensive coordinator)
- Allen and the Bills offense stage a late rally to make the score seems closer than the actual game portrayed
- Both offenses got off to a sloppy start to begin the season
Regardless, that many guesses at a negligible difference in scoring does not display the most confidence in the Texans' prospects in the matchup.
No 30-plus point projections for Houston's offense
Throghout the offseason, much has been made about how much better the offense has looked, even before the snap. From quarterback C.J. Stroud to running back Woody Marks, and the tight end room to Pro Bowl wide receiver Nico Collins, Houston potentially has everything necessary--both physically and narratively speaking--to warrant the thought of a much more potent offense than last year's unit. However, none of the analysts thought to give Houston even a single 30-point outing against the Bills for next Sunday afternoon.
It's understandable on its surface, simply because it's the NFL and 30-plus point explosions don't just grow on trees. However, the fact that eight of the experts didn't even peg the Texans to reach the 25-point mark is again cause for a side-eyeing of what exactly they could be seeing in their examination of the offense.
Again, there could be several causes for they the home team wouldn't reach at least 25 points in their season opener (Stroud struggles, offensive line woes, ineffective rushing attack, etc.). However, in a season where fans, the local media and the coaching staff itself are expecting more from that specific side of the football, there aren't many excuses that would make anyone feel better if there's a tangible struggle to move the football after this offseason's changes.
In their only predicted loss, it would be a blowout
The only loss on this slate belongs to Perna, who called for the Bills to roll 21-10 in the upcoming showdown. If this were to happen, alarms would certainly already begin to sound around the city in response to such a horrid start.
Not only would they fall to 0-1, they would then have immediate questions to answer if they'd want to firmly course-correct heading into week two's tilt against quarterback Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals. It would increase the temperature on Stroud and the Texans' contract negotations, and would presumably also cast a dark cloud over the job status of offensive coordinator Nick Caley.
Even with the additions of defenders like outside linebacker Bradley Chubb and safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson, there would be little-to-no acceptable response that could be offered for limping out of the gate without eclipsing at least 13-plus points. A start like that is why Houston began its season 0-3 last season, due to an opening three-game scoring spree of 9 (against the Los Angeles Rams), 19 (against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers) and 10 (against the Jacksonville Jaguars).
Any start like last season would be seen as a colossal failure already, and that's not a reality that Houston should allow with this opportunity.
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