Indianapolis Colts analyst, and Horseshoe Heroes contributor, Ernesto Cova made a bold claim about the implications of the contract proceedings between the Houston Texans and their young quarterback in C.J. Stroud. Specifically, he mentioned how the Colts are in a "win-win" situation when it comes to whether or not Stroud would be getting paid by his franchise in the near future.
"Stroud's situation is a win-win case for Shane Steichen's [Colts head coach] team. He can either play poorly and regret not taking the money when he could, or he can play just well enough to force the Texans' hand to commit big bucks to a player who may simply not have what it takes to get them over the hump."
Reading between the lines of Cova's proclamation, he's concluded that--regardless of pay structure--Stroud is simply not the level of quarterback that should warrant longterm trust by the organization and his fan base, and a large financial commitement would be considered an albatross of a deal for the Texans.
I'm here to offer the rebuttal that the sentiment of Stroud's "downfall" has been greatly exaggerated, and that the rest of the NFL should be on notice as of today.
C.J. Stroud's "downfall" has been greatly exaggerated
Before pushing back against the overall point that Stroud has "regressed", there needs to be some conxtextualizing of the surrounding environment that Stroud has had to occupy for the last three seasons.
- Back-to-back rookie playcallers (Bobby Blowik, Nick Caley)
- Only one season of productive running back play (2024, Joe Mixon)
- A bottom-three offensive line for multiple seasons (50+ sacks allowed in 2024)
- Season-ending injuries to multiple key skill position players (Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell, Joe Mixon and now Jayden Higgins)
- Injuries to multiple tight ends (Dalton Schultz in the 2025 AFCDG and Brevin Jordan's season ending injuries from 2024-2025)
So, before even really launching into any response of substance on the matter, in what world would any top-tier quarterback put fourth an MVP season--or ultimately a Super Bowl campaign--with that level of dysfunction to work with?
And in spite of that, Stroud has earned an NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award, has been declared a Pro Bowler, helped lead his team to three consecutive AFC Playoff trips, has helped secure two-straight AFC South titles (2023-2024) and helped provide the team an undefeated record in the Wild Card round since 2023 (3-0).
While the first thing many critics of Stroud will point to is his elite defensive support, the reality is that Stroud's heroics throughout various contests over the last three seasons have been just as notable. When the former Ohio State Buckeye is locked in, he's one of the most surgical passers in the NFL, along with having a knack for punishing defenders deep when they dare not play Cover 2 in coverage against him.
Now, it's completely fair to point out facts like Stroud's tendencies to lose large amount of yards on occasional self-inflicated sacks, or the perception that his on-field demeanor at times has not reflective of a leader that can rally the troops when the odds have been stacked against them. These are completely valid as observational notes.
However, during the course of Houston's offseason, everyone from general manager Nick Caserio to quarterbacks coach Jerry Schuplinski have done nothing but praise Stroud's various improvements in his game. Head coach DeMeco Ryans offered this glowing review of Stroud in late August,
"[Stroud] has grown from the aspect of being able to really maneuver in the pocket," Ryans said. "Not just maneuvering, but it's keeping two hands on the football, it's securing the football, it's stepping up in the pocket and still keeping his eyes downfield. Making the proper read, still throwing strikes, that's what's impressive about him. He's not getting flustered if things break down, he's still able to maneuver and make those plays on the run."
Ultimately, it's resulted in a resounding, unified message that this has been the best offseason program that they've witnessed of him to date.
I'd certainly take those realities under consideration before assuming that Stroud's best football is behind him. The fact is, everyone knows that this is the most pivotal season in Stroud's young career. After playing a major part in Houston now being 0-7 in the Divisional round of the playoffs, Stroud enters 2026 under arguably the most amount of pressure for a quarterback of his caliber in the league.
Most of all, Stroud understands the gravity of the situation, which is why I would have 60-65 million reasons why I believe that we're going to see one of the largest receipt checks in the history of the NFL if all goes well this campaign. This is just another one to add to the pile.
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