Will Anderson Jr. and the next BIG extension

Houston Texans general manager Nick Caserio took a big swing in 2023 when he traded away the 12th and 33rd overall picks in that draft, along with first and third round picks in the 2024 NFL Draft to move up to the third overall pick. With that selection, the Texans took Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson Jr.

Caserio turned that swing into a homerun as Anderson has developed into one of the ten best edge rushers in the NFL in just his third season in the league. His 30.0 sacks since entering the league is the 11th-most over that time period and his 181 pressures are 9th.

Extending Will Anderson Jr.

Now that he has three accrued seasons under his belt, Anderson Jr. is now extension eligible. Early extensions have become a more common tool for general managers to save cash and salary cap over multiple years by locking talented players up to long term contracts under lower salary caps.

Anderson is precisely the player that this strategy works best on. He's young, dominant and likely to reset his positional market. How much would that extension cost the Texans? And can they afford it? According to NFL Insider Ian Rapoport the team is already considering just such a move.

To answer the second question first... yes. They can afford an extension for their young pass rusher. I recently took a look at some projected cash budgets for every team in the NFL, and I have the Texans projected for the second-most available cash.

How much will Anderson Jr. cost? NFL contracts are dictated by comps. There are two recent comps that should set the bar. Here is how he compares to the recent signings of Micah Parsons and Aidan Hutchinson.

Statistics come from Pro Football Focus.

Hutchinson only played in five games in 2024 so it makes sense to look at a longer sample size. Here is how the three players stack up over the three years leading to their deals - or in Anderson's case, his potential deal.

*Hutchinson's production includes the first seven games of 2025 leading up to his four-year, $180 million extension to balance out the majority of 2024 he missed due to a season-ending injury.

Parsons inked his record-setting four-year, $186 million contract on the eve of the 2025 season.

Anderson trails the other two in counting stats, but his trajectory is firmly arrow up and his pressure rate nestles neatly in between Parsons' alien-like 18.4% and Hutchinson's still impressive 14.9%.

Parsons is Anderson Jr.'s closest recent comp based on his platform year. But I come back to his three-year production profile and how it closely aligns with Nick Bosa's just before his 2023 extension.

There are enough similarities here that I think Bosa's APY as a percent of cap could serve as the basis for Anderson Jr.'s valuation. Bosa's $34 million APY was 15.12% of the 2023 salary cap of $224.8 million. Bring that cap forward to a projected $305 million for 2026 puts his projected APY at $46 million. That would clear Hutchinson and put him just $500k/year behind Parsons for the top non-quarterback deal in the NFL.

Bosa had to commit to five years for his previous record-setting deal. But the recent trend for these types of pacts has been on a four-year length. I'd expect this deal to be no different. Especially so as he is a first-round draft pick and that length would keep him under team control for a total of six years through 2031.

My projection of four years and $184 million for the entire contract would include $94 million in fully guaranteed new money. Add in the $5,551,749 he was already owed for 2026 plus his fifth-year option - currently estimated at $22,304,000 - which would be picked up under this extension, and his total fully guaranteed money would be $121,855,749 with $139,000,000 fully guaranteed. Anderson Jr. would then have the distinction of having the most guarantees of any non-quarterback in the league.

If Houston committed to even cashflows across the six-year time horizon would mean the guarantees expire in 2029, just two years past his fifth-year option.

For the Texans this would represent a solid deal because of the nature of the salary cap. $46.5 million/year is a smaller portion (15.2%) of a $305 million salary cap than even Hutchinson's $45 million on a $279.2 million salary cap in 2025 (16.1%).

The opportunity cost for Houston is waiting a year, or two. If he continues to play at this level, or even a close approximation, his salary will only go up. An early extension for a premium player at a premium position is good business for all involved.