Conventional wisdom would say that with Davis Mills getting the start at quarterback for the Houston Texans this Sunday, an already so-so passing attack would potentially go into hibernation in Week 10. Theoretically, the recipe for victory for the 3-5 Texans would be to rely on the run game and the competency of one of the league's top defenses in order to get out with a much-needed win.
But football fans know all too well that conventional wisdom doesn't always prevail on gameday, and this could be a case where that proves to be true, because even with the circumstances being what they are, it feels like Texans leading receiver Nico Collins could be in for a huge day against the Jacksonville Jaguars this Sunday afternoon.
After posting back-to-back 1,000 yard seasons in 2023 and 2024, Collins is on pace to fall short of that mark in 2025. Chalk that up to CJ Stroud's inconsistencies or the growing pains associated with adjusting to a new offensive coordinator in Nick Caley, but either way, we've yet to see a vintage Nico Collins game this season... well, except for the last time these two teams played.
Back in Week 3 against Jacksonville, Nico Collins notched his only 100 yard game of the season thus far, finishing with 8 receptions for 104 yards and Houston's lone touchdown in a 17-10 loss that dropped the Texans to 0-3 on the year. But since then, Collins is averaging just 4 receptions and 58 receiving yards per game.
However, Collins' production -- or lack thereof -- is not necessarily an indication of what's to come. It could be a warning of what's about to change, because Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans knows that in order for this offense to reach its potential, Collins needs more than just 4 touches per game.
"I mean, we want to get the ball to our best players, right?," Ryans said during an interview earlier this week on Texans Radio. "We got to find a way to get Nico the ball even more. I feel like we could have got it to him on the outside more (last week), just giving him more shots downfield."
The Jaguars could be the exact opponent to take those shots down the field against. Thus far this season, Jacksonville has allowed the 6th-most passing yards and the 4th-most passing touchdowns. Yes, the Jags have also recorded 11 interceptions, the 2nd-most in the league, but this is a defense that has proven to be susceptible to damage through the air. Now it's just a matter of if the Texans truly feel comfortable letting Davis Mills air it out.
Even with that uncertainty, fantasy experts seem to be in lockstep regarding Nico Collins' output this week... the expectation is that Collins is a must-start in Week 10.
According to ESPN's consensus rankings, Collins is the 8th-ranked receiver this week, ahead of the likes of Emeka Egbuka, Zay Flowers and Ladd McConkey. Meanwhile, NFL.com's Michael Florio lists Collins as his top 'Start 'Em' wide receiver of the week, saying the following about the 26-year-old wideout:
"He has also gone over 100 yards in his last four games against Jacksonville, averaging 24.7 fantasy PPG in those contests," Florio writes. "The Jags have allowed the fifth-most yards and second-most touchdowns to outside receivers, which is where Collins runs over 80 percent of his routes. Even withDavis Mills in line to start for the Texans, you should start Collins."
That's all I needed to hear.