At first glance, the Kansas City Chiefs' 23-20 overtime win over the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday would appear to be a godsend for the Houston Texans. A loss for the Colts, their 3rd of the 2025 season, means that both the Texans and the Jacksonville Jaguars -- who narrowly escaped in Week 12 with a 3-point win over the free-falling Arizona Cardinals -- inched just a little bit closer to the top of the AFC South standings and a guaranteed home game to open the postseason.
But if the primary goal of the Houston Texans, or the Jacksonville Jaguars for that matter, is to simply be one of the seven teams left standing in the AFC at the end of the regular season, then this result at Arrowhead Stadium may not have actually been the best case scenario for everyone else in the AFC South.
Yes, Indy's overtime loss on Sunday does crack the door a little further open for the Jaguars and Texans to sneak in and steal away a division title that looked like a sure thing for the Colts only a few weeks back. But what it also did was muck up a potential path to the Playoffs via a Wild Card berth.
Right now, there are eight teams bunched up in the AFC with somewhere between 3 and 5 losses. Assuming the 10-2 New England Patriots, or the 9-2 Denver Broncos don't undergo an historic late season collapse, these two teams are safely in the Playoff field. That means there are five spots remaining for those eight teams that will enter Week 13 with either 3, 4 or 5 losses.
That number would've been cut to 7 if Indianapolis didn't blow an 11-point 4th quarter lead to the defending AFC champs on Sunday afternoon. And while 6-losses at this juncture of the season isn't by any means a death sentence, it would've made Kansas City's path to the Playoffs all the more treacherous. Ask anyone in the AFC if they'd prefer to not have the Chiefs looming in the postseason, and you'd get a resounding 'No!'
Now though, this logjam remains comically overcrowded, and it's going to be difficult for any of these teams to create much distance because there are plenty of head-to-head matchups yet to come. As a result, if you take a look at ESPN's most recent Playoff odds, there's not good reason for any of these AFC hopefuls to feel too comfortable just yet.
Team | Current Record | Current Odds to Make Playoffs |
|---|---|---|
Indianapolis Colts | 8-3 | 89% |
Buffalo Bills | 7-4 | 80% |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 7-4 | 75% |
Baltimore Ravens | 6-5 | 73% |
Kansas City Chiefs | 6-5 | 61% |
Los Angeles Chargers | 7-4 | 57% |
Pittsburgh Steelers | 6-5 | 35% |
Houston Texans | 6-5 | 34% |
Had Kansas City lost to Indianapolis on Sunday, the Chiefs chances of making the postseason would've dropped to just 35%, not only benefiting the Colts, but benefiting every other team in the AFC fighting for a chance to make the Playoffs. That includes the Texans.
The good news for Houston is that their win over the Buffalo Bills this past Thursday night ensured that the Texans avoided the same fate as the Chiefs did on Sunday. Now, with two games against Indy, one against Kansas City and one against Los Angeles still coming up, the Texans can effectively play themselves into the Playoffs if they're able to secure those wins over their fellow postseason hopefuls.