If you've watched enough pigskin over the course of your life, then surely at some point you've heard the old phrase, "Defense wins championships." It's often attributed to legendary Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Bear Bryant, but I find it hard to believe that nobody before the six-time National Championship winning coach uttered those three words together.
But since we're on the eve of another NFL postseason -- and because this is a Houston Texans-centric website and as we've covered at length here at Toro Times, the Texans defense is arguably the best unit in the NFL -- I'm left wondering how true this phrase actually is. So today, I present you with an experiment... one that uses data dating back to 1990 to determine how valid this popular aphorism has been.
In truth, there are actually three experiments being conducted here today.
1. Where does the team with the league's best scoring defense most often finish their season?
2. In the Super Bowl matchup only, how often does the team with the superior scoring defense win the game?
3. How have all teams that have finished the regular season ranked in the top three in yards allowed, points allowed and turnovers forced fared in the postseason?
A quick aside: Why 1990? Well, that's when the NFL expanded to a 12-team Playoff, and even though we run 14-deep now, I felt like using the 12-team fields in my body of work was appropriate, giving us a larger sample size.
1. Where does the team with the league's best scoring defense most often finish their season?
Result | Occurrences | Percentage of Time |
|---|---|---|
Missed Playoffs | 0 | 0% |
Lost in Wild Card Round | 6 | 17% |
Lost in Divisional Round | 13 | 37% |
Lost in Conference Championship | 6 | 17% |
Lost in Super Bowl | 2 | 5% |
Won Super Bowl | 8 | 22% |
2. In the Super Bowl matchup only, how often does the team with the superior scoring defense win the game?
Result | Occurrences | Percentage of Time |
|---|---|---|
Win | 26 | 74% |
Loss | 9 | 26% |
A quick rundown of the 9 instances in which the team with the superior defense lost in the Super Bowl:
Denver over Green Bay (1997) - There was a difference of just 5 points allowed in the regular season.
Denver over Atlanta (1998) - Difference of 20 points allowed in regular season.
New York over New England (2007) - The Giants defense was very middle of the pack during the regular season before they turned it on in the postseason, giving up just 16 points per game in their 4 Playoff wins.
New Orleans over Indianapolis (2009) - The Saints were the league's top scoring offense by 40 points in the regular season, and nearly 100 points better than the Colts, even in a season in which Peyton Manning won the MVP. Pretty surprising if you ask me.
Green Bay over Pittsburgh (2010) - This was a matchup of the #2 and #1 defenses in the NFL.
New York over New England (2011) - For as improbable as New York's upset over New England in 2007 felt, this one was actually wonkier. The Giants allowed 400 points in the regular season and had a -6 point differential during the regular season.
Baltimore over San Francisco (2012) - Ray Lewis was on deer antler spray during the postseason, so all bets are off here.
New England over Seattle (2014) - Tom Brady at his apex.
Kansas City over Philadelphia (2022) - Patrick Mahomes at his apex.
3. How have all teams that have finished the regular season ranked in the top three in yards allowed, points allowed and turnovers forced fared in the postseason?
So, for the record, there have been 18 instances -- including the Houston Texans this year -- in which a team has finished in the top three in all three of these categories in a given NFL season. Here's how all 17 prior instances have fared:
1991 New Orleans Saints - Lost in Wild Card Round
1991 Washington Redskins - Won Super Bowl
1996 Green Bay Packers - Won Super Bowl
1997 San Francisco 49ers - Lost in NFC Championship Game
2000 Baltimore Ravens - Won Super Bowl
2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Won Super Bowl
2006 Baltimore Ravens - Lost in Divisional Round
2007 Indianapolis Colts - Lost in Divisional Round
2008 Baltimore Ravens - Lost in AFC Championship Game
2010 Pittsburgh Steelers - Lost in Super Bowl
2013 Seattle Seahawks - Won Super Bowl
2017 Jacksonville Jaguars - Lost in AFC Championship Game
2018 Chicago Bears - Lost in Wild Card Round
2019 New England Patriots - Lost in Wild Card Round
2020 Pittsburgh Steelers - Lost in Wild Card Round
2021 Buffalo Bills - Lost in Divisional Round
2022 San Francisco 49ers - Lost in NFC Championship Game
Result | Occurrences | Percentage of Time |
|---|---|---|
Lost in Wild Card Round | 4 | 23% |
Lost in Divisional Round | 3 | 17% |
Lost in Conference Championship | 4 | 23% |
Lost in Super Bowl | 1 | 5% |
Won Super Bowl | 5 | 29% |