In a piece published today by Sports Illustrated Jacksonville Jaguars beat reporter John Shipley, he surmised that his team would "leapfrog" the defending AFC champions in the New England Patriots.
In his article, he gave five reasons why that would be the case. They were:
- Trevor Lawrence's quarterback experience edge over Drake Maye
- Liam Coen being the superior head coach over Mike Vrabel
- Cornerback/wide receiver Travis Hunter's growth as a playmaker
- Jaguars having the skill position player advantage over the Patriots
- The Jaguars' defensive line being better than the Patriots' offensive line
While those are definitely solid reasons for why the Jaguars could surpass the Patriots in 2026, one would error in presuming that Jacksonville would then just have a clear path to the top of the Conference afterward. This is of course in reference to their in-division rivals in the Houston Texans, who currently own a 4-2 head-to-head advantage over the Jaguars since 2023, and who also lasted one round longer than their black-and-teal clad counterparts in this past season's AFC playoffs.
Along with that, ESPN also ranked Houston as having the ninth-best projected starting roster in the NFL, while the Jaguars ended up seven spots worse at 16th-overall. Needless to say, before the Jaguars can think about conquering the AFC, they first need to survive a team that projects to be a buzzsaw of a franchise out of the AFC South in 2026.
Jaguars shouldn't overlook the Texans in pursuit of an AFC crown
To be fair to Jacksonville, they did manage a historic 13-4 campaign -- the likes of which not being seen from that organization since their 1999 squad that had Tom Coughlin as the head coach and Mark Brunell as the starting quarterback.
It included a gritty 17-10 victory over the Texans in week three, which dropped Houston to 0-3 while elevating themselves to 2-1 at the time. However, the Texans would exact some comeuppance seven weeks later in week 10, as backup quarterback Davis Mills and co. would knock off the Jaguars via a 19-point comeback in the fourth quarter to steal the contest 36-29.
From that point on, neither team lost again, with Houston winning a total of nine games in a row, compared to Jacksonville's eight in a row. The crescendo of this trip down memory lane being the fact that the Texans blew up their Wildcard round opponent in the Pittsburgh Steelers to the tune of a 30-6 victory at Acrisure Stadium. Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars fell to the visiting Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills 27-24 after a multi-turnover day by Lawrence was capped off by a game-ending interception by Bills safety Cole Bishop on a pass intended for wide receiver Jakobi Meyers. Then, you have the variance in offseason approaches between the two.
Texans ' offseason seen as better than the Jaguars'
Then you have the fact that Houston has done nothing but add multiple players to every facet of the roster to improve their chances at a deeper playoff run, while Jacksonville has been scrutinized heavily around the NFL for what has been perceived as a very ineffective handling of personnel decisions this offseason. As a result, Houston's aggressiveness since January has led to many prominent voices declaring them as legitimate Super Bowl contenders in the event of them cleaning up their lingering questions (C.J. Stroud's trajectory, offensive line, rushing attack, etc.)
In summation, the Texans loom as a more immediate threat to the Jaguars than the Patriots at the moment. While Jacksonville should be given respect as one the of the four best in the Conference as of today, any conversation about a potential for dominance on their part should be anchored by the fact that they still have to eclipse a team in Houston who owns a 32-16 all-time record against them. It also doesn't hurt that Houston will enter this upcoming season with 2025's best overall defense that only got better.
The AFC South race is shaping up to be a slugfest.
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