The No. 5 seed Houston Texans and the No. 4 seed Pittsburgh Steelers have the small luxury of knowing exactly who they would play on Divisional Round weekend with a win on Wild Card weekend heading into their Monday night matchup.
Not only is this game the final game of the postseason's opening round, but because the game is the No. 5 vs. No. 4 game, the winner's opponent is set to be the same regardless of who wins, even though the NFL uses a reseeding format for the playoffs.
It's largely why the NFL has only ever placed a No. 5 vs. No. 4 game in the Monday Night Football slot since adding that slot to the Wild Card calendar four postseasons ago.
This weekend's other AFC playoff games include Sunday afternoon's matchup featuring the No. 6 seed Buffalo Bills and the No. 3 seed Jacksonville Jaguars, and Sunday night's match featuring the No. 7 seed Los Angeles Chargers and the No. 2 seed New England Patriots.
Houston, Buffalo, and New England are all favored at DraftKings Sportsbook, and if all three teams hold serve, Houston would travel to New England next weekend.
That game would presumably be next Sunday, rather than Saturday, given the NFL's history of giving the Monday night Wild Card winner a fair amount of rest. Buffalo, as the AFC team with the lowest remaining seed, would take on the No. 1 seed Denver Broncos.
However, according to ESPN FPI, that is not the most likely outcome.
Here's a look at all four of Houston's possible Divisional Round opponents, ranked by likelihood.
1. Denver Broncos
For Houston to travel to Denver next weekend, they would need to win and possess the AFC's lowest remaining seed after Wild Card weekend, meaning they would need both No. 2 New England and No. 3 Jacksonville to win as well.
The Texans and Broncos met in Houston during the regular season, with the Broncos emerging victorious by a score of 18-15 in Week 9. Houston has since gone on a nine-game winning streak.
Likelihood: 15.08%, 27.79% assuming Texans win
2. New England Patriots
The most likely Divisional Round opponent for Houston at the sportsbooks is not the same as it is on ESPN FPI. But if the favored Patriots and the road favorites Bills and Texans do all manage to win this weekend, Houston would be headed to New England.
The Texans and Patriots have not met since the 2024 regular season, when the Texans won in New England by a score of 41-21 in Week 6.
Likelihood: 14.03%, 25.79% assuming Texans win
3. Jacksonville Jaguars
A third AFC South battle between the Texans and Jaguars this season is very much on the table. In addition to requiring wins from Houston and Jacksonville, it would require the Chargers to upset the Patriots, since that would then send Los Angeles to Denver.
The Texans and Jaguars split their regular season series this past year, with each winning at home. the Jaguars won by a score of 17-10 in Week 3, and the Texans won by a score of 36-29 in Week 10 to begin their nine-game winning streak. The Jaguars' eight-game winning streak began one week later.
Likelihood: 13.10%, 24.09% assuming Texans win
4. Buffalo Bills
The least likely option is still very much on the table, given the fact that no AFC team has greater than a 54.4% chance to win (or less than a 45.6% chance to lose) this weekend, according to ESPN FPI. If the road teams sweep the weekend, the Chargers would be headed to Denver, and the Bills would be headed to Houston, which has never previously hosted a Divisional Round game.
The Texans and Bills met in Houston during the regular season, with the Texans emerging victorious by a score of 23-19 in Week 12.
Likelihood: 12.19%, 22.41% assuming Texans win
The only AFC team the Texans cannot possibly face in the Divisional Round is the Chargers, since they are the No. 7 seed, meaning that their only possible opponent with a win over the Patriots is the Broncos. If they beat New England, Los Angeles would be guaranteed to be the AFC team with the lowest remaining seed after Wild Card weekend.
Monday night's Wild Card matchup is set to be shown live on ABC, ESPN, and ESPN2, beginning at 7:00 p.m. CT.