Texans hit with harsh projection amid off-season preparations

The Houston Texans have been hit with a harsh prediction, projected to lose AFC south—analysts say Houston fans won’t be happy.
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The Houston Texans enter the 2025 NFL season with both momentum and mounting questions after capturing back-to-back AFC South titles, but falling short of lofty expectations as the league’s next powerhouse.

Houston finished 10-7 last season, securing the division crown but drawing criticism for inconsistent play and lingering roster holes, particularly along the offensive line. The unit’s struggles left quarterback C.J. Stroud under constant pressure, fueling concerns that have persisted into the offseason despite several personnel moves.

The Texans parted ways with All-Pro left tackle Laremy Tunsil and veteran guard Shaq Mason, and traded former first-round pick Kenyon Green. In their place, Houston added free agent tackles Cam Robinson and Trent Brown, as well as guards Laken Tomlinson and Ed Ingram. The team also drafted Minnesota tackle Aireontae Ersery in the second round, but analysts remain skeptical that the changes will be enough to protect Stroud and stabilize the offense.

“There are definitely reasons to be cautious about the Texans,” wrote Bleacher Report’s Moe Moton, who projects Houston to finish 9-8 and lose the AFC South to the Jacksonville Jaguars. “The Texans’ offensive line will cost them some games, but their defense should balance out some of those losses with stifling performances in victories. Houston struggles early while first-time play-caller Nick Caley finds the right buttons to push, but the club still finishes above .500”.

Houston’s defense, bolstered by the addition of safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson and a standout secondary, is expected to be among the league’s best. On offense, Stroud retains top target Nico Collins and welcomes veteran Christian Kirk, along with promising rookie receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, who are expected to play significant roles immediately.

Despite the upgrades, the Texans face a challenging schedule, opening against the Los Angeles Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers-both 2024 division winners-and drawing tough matchups against the AFC and NFC West. Analysts note that Houston’s path to a third straight division title is far from guaranteed, with both the Jaguars and Colts improving in the offseason.

“The Texans should be the team to beat in the AFC South once again, but they remain a step below true contention in the conference,” wrote FOX Sports’ Ben Arthur, projecting another 9-8 finish for Houston.

As the Texans prepare for the 2025 campaign, the franchise’s ability to address its offensive line woes and integrate new playmakers will be critical in determining whether they can maintain their hold on the division-or cede ground to a resurgent Jacksonville squad led by new additions like Travis Hunter.