We finally have a significant update on the pseudo "contract saga" between the Houston Texans and fourth-year quarterback C.J. Stroud. Spoiler alert: Don't hold your breath on an Adam Schefter tweet about a blockbuster contract anytime soon.
"Stroud and the Texans aren't close to a deal as of late June," reported ESPN Texans reporter DJ Bien-Aime in an article posted early this morning on ESPN.com that covered contract extension talks throughout the NFL. While this specific development was essentially already projected and proactively accepted by the majority of the fanbase beforehand, it still is a sobering reality nonetheless.
Even the biggest optimists have to now acknowledge the fact that Stroud and the team may not agree on a resolution on the matter anytime soon. This now officially raises the temperature on expectations of his play in 2026.
It could be a "prove-it" season for C.J. Stroud in 2026
Bien-Aime explained the rationale behind the current state of affairs between the two sides by stating,
"Houston and its quarterback are in a tricky spot because last season did not end the way either would've preferred. Stroud threw four interceptions against the Patriots in the AFC divisional round. A performance like that can cause hesitation when the extension for Stroud could be in the $55 million to $60 million range per year. With how negotiations are currently going, it's gearing up to be a prove-it season for Stroud."
Much of why Stroud doesn't have a new deal at the moment has been recycled throughout the NFL media space since Houston's season ended in Foxborough, Massachusetts this past January. After a two-game playoff stretch that saw Stroud credited for five fumbles (two lost) and five interceptions, many voices have loudly expressed a newfound distrust in the former Ohio State Buckeye's abilities to lead his team to the ultimate prize of a Super Bowl win.
But Bien-Aime made it a point to also mention the amount of money that was projected to be thrown Stroud's way in the event of a new pact.
Money is also a factor in C.J. Stroud negotiations
A $55 million-$60 million APY investment would firmly land Stroud among the seven most highly-paid signal callers in the sport. According to Spotrac, this list is:
- Patrick Mahomes - $63.09 million APY
- Dak Prescott - $60 million APY
- Matthew Stafford, Jordan Love, Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen - $55 million APY
Thus, not only was his recent play an influential factor in this process, but the actual price target itself further complicates any plan to fully commit to Stroud beyond 2027 at the moment. That could apply to both sides, as super-agent David Mulugheta and Stroud could theoretically also be holding out for higher pay in the midst of impending contract offers to the likes of Baker Mayfield and 2023 draft mate Bryce Young from their respective teams (as Mulugheta and his clients have a growing history of securing top-of-the-market contracts).
Utilizing Spotrac's Market Value projections, the three aformentioned quarterbacks potentially have current contract values of:
- Baker Mayfield - $53.6 million APY
- C.J. Stroud - $51.6 million APY
- Bryce Young - $37.2 million APY
Stroud would be the second-highest compensated of the bunch, but we don't know if that's the bar that Mulugheta and Stroud would want as their floor in negotiations.
Regardless of the speculation, the fact is that Houston and Stroud aren't projected to shake hands on a deal prior to the beginning of the regular season in September. And honestly, that may not be a bad thing. With the added motivation, Stroud may execute his best season since his now legendary rookie campaign and resuscitate his positive on-field image and value around the NFL.
For the Texans, they hold off on paying Stroud for one more offseason and, best case scenario, more than happily pay a "patience tax" for Stroud's services for the better part of the next decade. More updates will certainly leak out eventually, but things seem pretty set in stone at the moment for both parties involved.
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