The Houston Texans host the Los Angeles Chargers this Saturday afternoon in the first round of the NFL playoffs. While some have said that playing the Texans right now is essentially getting a bye, the fact of the matter is that teams play the games for a reason. Anything can happen in the NFL. It's win-or-go-home and the Texans are hoping to win and send the Chargers home.
At the beginning of the year, the Texans were looked at as potential Super Bowl contenders and that all stemmed from the surprising year they had in 2023. No one expected the Texans, who were then led by a first-year head coach and a rookie quarterback, to do as well as they did, so it only made sense that they'd take the next step and become an even tougher team in 2024.
Well, that didn't happen. The Texans stumbled down the stretch but made it into the playoffs due to the AFC South being a weak division. Now they'll have to prove they belong when the Chargers come to town for a wild card match-up this Saturday.
If the Texans win their wild card match-up against the Chargers, there are four potential teams that Houston could square off against in the divisional round. Let's rank them from "easiest" to hardest.
4. Pittsburgh Steelers
If the Texans knock off the Chargers, the Steelers go on the road to beat the Ravens, and the Broncos stunned the Bills in Buffalo, Houston's divisional-round opponent would be an ideal one, as they'd be hosting the Steelers. It's not common for a four-seed to get to host a divisional round match-up so this isn't a likely scenario but it is theoretically possible.
Texans fans were hoping the Steelers would win their Week 18 game (or that the Chargers would lose theirs) so that Pittsburgh would be the five-seed and be the team coming into H-Town instead of Los Angeles. Alas, that's not what happened.
The Steelers rode a four-game losing streak to close out their 2024 regular season and did not look like a playoff-caliber team (though, one could argue, neither did the Texans). Now if they managed to go into Baltimore and knock off a red-hot team like the Ravens, this might be a different story but right now, Texans fans would gladly accept another home playoff game and only having to get through the Steelers to reach the AFC Championship Game.
3. Buffalo Bills
Numbers one through three could quite honestly be put in any order because all three would be brutal opponents for the Texans. I ultimately put the Bills third here because the Texans beat them earlier in the year.
A lot has changed since that early-season win over Buffalo but with the Bills' leaky defense, it's possible that the Texans could score some points. This game would take place in Buffalo, however, so it'd be rocking and would certainly be a difficult environment for C.J. Stroud and the rest of the Texans offense to thrive in.
For this to be the Texans' match-up in the divisional round, they obviously have to take care of business against the Chargers and the Steelers and Bills would need to win their respective games. Possible, but as I mentioned in the Steelers entry, it doesn't feel like they'll be able to get past their division rival in the wild card round.
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2. Kansas City Chiefs
The Texans faced the Chiefs toward the end of the regular season and while the score looks admirable, the game never felt like it was trending positively for the Texans. Throw in that Arrowhead Stadium is a terrifying place to play at during the playoffs due to the loud and rabid fan base and the frigid cold (just look back at the Chiefs/Dolphins wild card game last year) and this would be an incredibly difficult game for the Texans.
Houston hasn't fared well against Kansas City during the playoffs either. The two have squared off against each other twice in the postseason since the Texans entered the NFL in 2002 and neither game has gone well for Houston. In the first meeting in 2016 (2015 season), the Texans were blanked 30-0. In the second meeting, the Texans got off to a 24-0 head start before KC came cruising back and eventually won the game 51-31 (yes, even after being down 24-0).
While the Texans are an entirely different team than the two I just mentioned, it'd be best if the Texans didn't have to go up against the back-to-back Super Bowl champions in their home stadium in the playoffs. This would be the likeliest match-up for the Texans if they manage to win their game, however, because the Bills and Ravens would both have to win their games, which is expected to happen.
1. Baltimore Ravens
The team that the Texans would most like to avoid in the playoffs would be the Ravens, who absolutely curbstomped them when the two met up on Christmas Day. For this to happen, the Texans and Ravens would both need to win their games and the Broncos would need to pull off the upset in Buffalo, so fortunately, this isn't the likeliest of options.
That being said, if it did happen, Texans fans would not be thrilled. The Ravens demolished the Texans a few weeks ago with Houston's offense failing to score a single point (the only points scored was a safety in the second quarter) while Baltimore's offense was running and throwing all over the field.
The Texans aren't favored in their home game (LA is a 2.5-point favorite, as of this writing) so just winning their Wild Card game would be a huge thrill for the fan base. That being said, unless they manage to get the Steelers in the divisonal round, fans wouldn't be feeling too good about their chances in the divisional round.