One major takeaway from the 2025 NFL season is that the days where the established favorites could be counted upon to live up to that billing may be over. The last two teams left standing -- the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots -- were a pair longshots who entered the season with 60-to-1 odds to win the Super Bowl, and the teams they defeated in the Conference Championship round were quarterbacked by an unproven second-year starter that virtually nobody around the long believed in (Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix), and 37-year-old who came into the season with back issues that many feared would potentially keep him out of action (Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford).
Elsewhere, the Chicago Bears, Jacksonville Jaguars, Carolina Panthers all went from picking in the top 10 in the NFL Draft in April 2025 to hosting Playoff games in January 2026. The Indianapolis Colts and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who were a combined a 13-3 after Week 8, finished the season with a combined record of 16-18.
The three-time defending AFC Champion Kansas City Chiefs missed the postseason altogether, as did their opponent in last year's AFC Championship Game, the Baltimore Ravens. In the NFC, the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings went from winning 15 and 14 games respectively to staying home for the Playoffs. The Washington Commanders, who lost in last year's NFC Championship Game, won just 5 games.
This is a somewhat convoluted way of highlighting just how off the rails the 2025 season went, and frankly, this probably won't change any time soon. That means the 2026 season could be unprecedented in that there will be more teams that feel like legitimate Super Bowl contenders heading into the season than ever before.
And yes, this is a benefit to a team like the Houston Texans, which has A) accumulated an abundance of talented, particularly on the defensive side of the ball, B) proven over a three season stretch that they can compete against the best teams in the NFL, and C) a considerable amount of continuity heading into the 2026 season.
Are there warts that the Texans still need to address? Of course there are, but even for the reigning AFC champions, that remains the case. Hell, the Patriots may be in even greater need of roster upgrades than the Texans are, depending on how you want to judge New England's offensive line and pass-catchers compared to Houston's.
Again, this is a somewhat convoluted way of saying that the Texans, despite having odds that sit outside of the top ten, have just as good of a chance as winning the Super Bowl as anybody else, not only because of the team that's been built in Houston, but also because there is no Goliath that the Texans, or anybody else for that matter, needs to overcome.
Want some proof that this is the case?
11 ESPN analysts were recently asked to make an early Super Bowl LXI prediction. Those 11 analysts combined to slot 11 different teams into next year's Super Bowl matchup with 8 different winners, none of which were the New England Patriots or the Seattle Seahawks. The Rams (3 votes) and Chiefs (2 votes) were the only teams that were picked to win the Super Bowl by multiple panel members. The Chicago Bears, Denver Broncos, San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Chargers and Washington Commanders were all picked by one analyst to win the Super Bowl, as were the Houston Texans.
Ben Solak, who picked the Texans over the Rams as his Super Bowl matchup, explained why he believes Houston is primed to finally get over the hump next February.
"I'm buying all sorts of Texans stock, as that defense is staying together, and the offense was showing positive signs of growth in a season with a new offensive coordinator and a totally retooled offensive line," Solak wrote. "With an improvement in the running game, Houston is set for an explosion."
Solak's forecast for the Texans in 2026 is one that is contingent on how Nick Caley and co. handle the offseason, but it's certainly attainable. The Texans won 12 games last season despite A) not having a bell-cow running back, B) relying heavily on a pair of rookie wide receivers, C) having to play their backup quarterback for nearly four full games, and D) still having a below-average offensive line despite shuffling in four new starters to improve upon a unit that was an abject disaster in 2024.
Assuming the Texans address their offensive line and running back deficiencies, get a year two bump from both Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, and get a healthy and increasingly competent season out of CJ Stroud, this team could theoretically be looked at as a juggernaut by this time next year.