Chalk up another offseason projections victory for the Houston Texans. According to the most recent statistics from FanDuel Sportsbook, they have the Texans as the current favorites to claim the AFC South title in 2026. The full odds for the division's final stadings are as follows:
- Houston Texans +135
- Jacksonville Jaguars +190
- Indianapolis Colts +370
- Tennessee Titans +850
While Super Bowls aren't won or lost at the whim of sports bettors, it's still an ecouraging bit of news that there's an increasing amount of entities that recognize Houston as having the highest potential for success in their division this upcoming campaign.
With full acknowledgment of the fact that the Jaguars took last year's crown with 13-4 record, the Texans have a strong case to surpass their AFC South counterparts, as well as all the others, on the odds boards.
Texans have a strong case to already be considered best in the AFC South
For starters, Houston had the best closing stretch of football last season out of their divisional opponents.
Houston's nine-game win streak amid holistic Divisional collapse
After beginning their campaign 0-3, and then eventually 3-5, the Texans officially turned their season around in week 10 against the Jaguars in one of the most historic moments in recent franchise history. After overcoming a 19-point Jaguars lead in the fourth quarter, Houston sealed the 36-29 win with a pseudo interception/scoop-and-score off Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence courtesy of defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins.
Houston wouldn't lose another regular season game after that, as they knocked off their final eight opponents to reach both a 12-5 record and their third consecutive AFC playoff berth. Meanwhile, the Colts finished 8-9 (seven-game losing streak), the Jaguars finished with an eight-game winning streak of their own and the Titans finished the year at 3-14.
That kind of electric ending has a way of carrying over into the next season. Then, you have the defensive argument that also falls in the Texans' favor.
Houston has the best defense in the division
Stop us if you've heard this before, but the Texans currently have the best defense in the NFL. As such, that would mean that Houston has the best defense in their division.
Houston's defense
The Texans ended their last campaign ranked as the best total defense (277.2 YPG), with a second place finish in points per game (17.4 PPG). Those two marks combined to provide the franchise with its best unit in team history and the engine needed to generate their aforementioned nine-game winning streak (became 10-straight in the playoffs).
Jacksonville's defense
The next best case would be Jacksonville's 11th-best total unit (303.6 YPG), who also finished as the eighth-best scoring defense. That's highly respectable production, but not in Houston's territory.
Indianapolis' defense
After the Jaguars would come to Colts, who landed at the 23rd-overall spot as a total defense (349.8 YPG), which included their 21st-overall scoring defense (24.2 PPG). Key injuries to defenders like All-Pro cornerback Sauce Gardner and All-Pro defensive tackle DeForest Buckner definitely impacted their production throughout the season. However, there's a reason why Colts general manager Chris Ballard made the blockbuster move to trade for Gardner in the first place.
Tennessee's defense
While mired in an abysmal 3-14 season, the Titans actually fielded a somewhat competitive defense in 2025 for all intents and purposes. They ranked as the 21st-overall total defense (345.1 YPG), while finishing as the 28th-overall scoring defense (28.1 PPG). That's with multiple holes throughout the roster being worked all throughout the campaign.
Finally, there's the matter of which team in the AFC South has had the most productive offseason thus far. For now, Houston has the ede in that department also.
The Texans have had the most productive offseason in the division
My confidence to say that Houston has had the best offseason in the division is predicated on the key depth acquired in both free agency and the draft, as well as what those parts will already be added to. Keep in mind, the Texans finished with a 12-5 record and manage to blowout the Pittsburgh Steelers 30-6 in the AFC Wildcard round. Even though they didn't make it to Santa Clara for last year's Lombardi trophy match, the roster was still recognized as already being one of the best in all of football.
They then added at least five offensive linemen, multiple tight ends, David montgomery via trade, a couple of more wide receivers, a Super Bowl winning safety and arguably the best defensive tackle in the draft this year. This is in addition to the natural growth that will happen with multiple returning players having gained yet another year's worth of experience at the NFL level and with their respective position coaches (specifically C.J. Stroud and the offense).
Looking at the rest of the division, Jacksonville lost a 1,000-yard rusher in Travis Etienne to the New Orleans Saints in free agency, the Colts are still monitoring quarterback Daniel Jones' health after a ruptured achilles tendon ended his season last year and the Titans are hoping that a coaching staff that includes Robert Saleh and Brian Daboll can help bring the most out of a team that's finished as one of the worst units for multiple years in a row now.
All things considered, the Texans have the best overall runway to re-capturing the AFC South title in comparison with the rest of their competition. The games still have to be played, but all indicators point to Houston winning their ninth division title in team history (which would extend their lead for most division titles since their first time in 2011).
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