The Houston Texans take on the Miami Dolphins on Sunday and when they do, they’ll have a new quarterback behind center. Kyle Allen takes over from Davis Mills as the starting quarterback. That particular change could actually start a bit of a chain reaction should things go right for Lovie Smith and company.
On its face, this isn’t expected to be much of a game. The Houston Texans are currently two-touchdown underdogs. That makes sense, considering that the Dolphins look like one of the best teams in the AFC, and the Texans are currently the absolute worst.
It’s always hard to take an NFL team when they are 14-point dogs. It’s also hard to bet against the favorite when the spread is that big. That’s why it seems like it’s probably a safe bet to stay away from the actual line but that doesn’t mean there aren’t other plays that can be made.
Kyle Allen OVER 224.5 Pass Yards Prop Bet (-115)
This one might surprise a few people when it comes to Kyle Allen’s first start for the Houston Texans but there are a couple of reasons why this one works this way. The fact of the matter is that while the Dolphins are very good, their defense is just middling at best.
There’s also the fact that in this era of NFL games, 225 yards isn’t that much. Davis Mills was just 60 yards shy of that in a game that was so bad he was finally benched. Allen isn’t a great quarterback but he’s a veteran presence who will likely throw the ball more than Mills had. He’ll hit this mark.
Jeff Wilson UNDER 82.5 Rush Yards Prop Bet (-113)
Yes, the Houston Texans have the worst run defense in the NFL. Yes the Miami Dolpins are a team looking to make some noise in their push for the playoffs. Yes, Jeff Wilson is starting this Sunday in place of Raheem Mostert.
No, it doesn’t seem likely that the Dolpins’ backup running back is going to find a way to rush for over 80 yards. With Mostert out, it seems far more likely that the ‘Fins will lean heavily on Tua than give Wilson the carries to run wild.
Houston Texans vs Miami Dolphins Best Prop Bets
For those of you wondering how good we’ve been at this sort of thing up to this point, I’m 2-1 on the season since joining Toro Times. Whether the Houston Texans win or lose, you’ve got a chance to win if you take these prop bets.