The expected points added for both the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars are not good.
Expected points added (EPA) is an advanced football metric that may be unfamiliar to some readers, so let’s break it down with help from The 33rd Team. EPA’s definition on their website is as follows:
"Expected points added is a measure of how well a team performs relative to expectation. For example, if a team starts a drive on the 50-yard line, its expected points to start the drive would be about 2.5. If the team ends the drive with a field goal, thus gaining 3 points, its EPA for that drive would be found by subtracting its expected points from how many points it actually gained, 3 – 2.5 or 0.5 EPA."
It’s a system that gives a numerical value that continues to add up as a team marches down the field. The more positive a team’s EPA is, the more likely it is that said team will be scoring more points. When it comes to Houston and Jacksonville, those numbers are one of many ways to show how bad both of them are.
With help from our friends at PFR, we can see that the current EPA values for both teams:
- Houston Texans: -103.07 (32nd)
- Jacksonville Jaguars: -45.69 (29th)
Neither of these teams has been very efficient with the ball; either they are converting on later downs or going backward. Davis Mills is 31st in the league amongst quarterback EPA, with a wimpy 9.5 EPA. Lawrence is slightly better at 27th overall, with 25.8 EPA.
The winner: With these numbers known, Jacksonville has a much better futuristic outlook than Houston if it had to be given off of this metric alone. No stat tells all, but when your team is young, and you’re looking for a way to measure their effectiveness, this gets the job done.