What can the Houston Texans expect from Brock Osweiler?

What kind of production will the Houston Texans get out of their new starting quarterback Brock Osweiler in 2016?

The Houston Texans have a new starting quarterback as they have given former Denver Broncos second-round pick Brock Osweiler the reins of the offense. In the opening moments of free agency, the Texans signed the Arizona State product to a four-year deal worth $72 million, which included an impressive $37 million guaranteed.

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That kind of guaranteed money means that the Texans are going all-in on the kid that Denver was determined to insult until he left (and they kept doing so afterwards). So did they make the right choice in Osweiler? Only time will tell, but head coach Bill O’Brien’s track record with players far less talented like Brian Hoyer and Ryan Fitzpatrick sure makes it seem like this will not just work, but it will work extremely well.

Osweiler played in eight games, but started seven of them in 2015 for the eventual Super Bowl champions and managed to lead the team to a 5-2 record while throwing for 1,967 yards with 10 touchdowns and six interceptions. That works out to roughly an average of 245 yards per game, with 1.25 touchdowns and 0.75 interceptions.

Those numbers for a full season work out to be 3,920 yards with 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. In Houston, those stats would be much higher.

The fact is, the Texans like to pass the ball. A lot. Despite starting four different players due to injuries, Houston threw the ball 619 times (38 attempts per contest). That was good for ninth most passes during the 2015 season. Before all the injuries though, Houston was the top team for total passes, and despite the addition of running back Lamar Miller, they will most likely continue to try and make gains through the air.

So what can the fans of the Texans expect to see from Osweiler? Look for the Texans to stay around the same average attempts, while seeing Osweiler improve upon his 61.8 percent completions. Why can we assume he will improve? If Brian Hoyer and Ryan Fitzpatrick got better with O’Brien, so will Brock Osweiler.

Expect Osweiler to complete roughly 24 of those passes while his average per attempt stays around a respectable seven to 7.5. He should be able to increase his touchdowns per game, simply by throwing to super star receiver DeAndre Hopkins.

By the time the season ends, expect Broncos general manager John Elway and company to look very foolish for  letting their quarterback walk.

2016 Prediction: Completion percentage of 65 percent for 4,560 yards, 26 touchdowns, 13 interceptions

Next: Texans hit free agent lottery

As always, feel free to come back at year’s end and let me have it if these predictions are off base!