Welcome to a Wild Card Round edition of 'Speaking with the Enemy,' a weekly feature here at Toro Times where I'll be sleuthing for some intel on each week's Houston Texans opponent.
This week, ahead of Houston's opening round Playoff game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, I caught up with Shayne Kubas of Still Curtain to fill us in on what we should be expecting from the AFC North champions during Monday night's showdown in the Steel City.
Sonny Giuliano: Okay Shayne, it's Playoff time, and just like clockwork, Mike Tomlin has the Pittsburgh Steelers back in the postseason. Yet it was only a few weeks ago when the team (and the coach) were being serenaded by "Fire Tomlin" chants. What kind of feel do you have for whether Tomlin is going to be back next season?
Shayne Kubas: He will almost certainly be the Pittsburgh Steelers Head Coach in 2026, regardless of the outcome of this game. What isn't set in stone is if ownership will trigger an option in his contract this coming March that would lock him in for 2027 as well.
Art Rooney II may want to force Tomlin to coach for his job next season if the Steelers suffer yet another blowout loss in the postseason, something that had become a common occurence in recent years. Even that might be expecting too much from ownership, however.
SG: By all statistical measures, this Steelers team is very middle of the pack, so perhaps accordingly, the Texans are road favorites as they come into this game on a 9 game winning streak while also boasting the NFL's top defense. I'll be honest though, I still expected the Steelers to be favored on Monday night. Were you surprised by the respect given to the Texans by oddsmakers, or rather, the lack of respect for the Steelers?
SK: I can't say that I am surprised, given the trajectory of both teams. Pittsburgh squandered multiple opportunities to put the AFC North title to bed before needing a missed field goal to even make the playoffs.
The Texans, meanwhile, emphatically earned their spot in the playoffs with their sensational finish to the season. While I would have understood if this game was considered more of a toss-up, I think the oddsmakers were right to give Houston the edge.
SG: Give me the scoop on Aaron Rodgers. He looked absolutely washed with the New York Jets last season, but despite a clearly diminishing skillset, he managed a much better season this year with Pittsburgh than I or many others expected. How much of this is smoke and mirrors, and how much is that Rodgers still has enough in the tank to potentially lead a team on a deep postseason run?
SK: Aaron Rodgers is still a bit of an enigma, even to Steelers fans. He has very clear physical limitations at 42 years old, but the arm is still very much a weapon for him even this late in his career. The offense can definitely lean on some smoke and mirrors-esque things, like plenty of quick passes and dump offs.
What I will be looking out for in the playoffs is his willingness to hang in the pocket. Rodgers has one of the lowest time-to-throw marks in the NFL (2.56), and it often leads to missing out on potential big plays. With everything on the line moving forward, maybe we get a little more of vintage Aaron in this one.
SG: Maybe a more straight-forward question would be this one: Is Aaron Rodgers capable of leading the Steelers to a competent enough performance against Houston on Monday night to at least get Pittsburgh out of the Wild Card Round?
SK: Capable? Yes. Would I say it's likely? Can't say that I would. So much of the offense has been predicated on getting the ball out quickly underneath, or looking deep to DK Metcalf (and I suppose Marquez Valdes-Scantling now, as well). That won't be enough against the Texans impressive front and swarming secondary.
He will need to attack the middle of the field early and often to have a chance, and it's hard to have any confidence that he will.
I think anything is possible when you have the talent they have up front, but there are holes in this defense that are unacceptable considering the enormous amount of cap spending they account for.
SG: The backslide of the Steelers defense has been a not so pleasant surprise in Pittsburgh this year. Personally, it reminds me a little of those New York Giants seasons back in 2007 and 2011 where, by the numbers, these weren't great defenses in the regular season, but in the postseason they were able to dial things up. Do you think this Steelers defense has that gear?
SK: T.J. Watt has taken a step back, Jalen Ramsey is still figuring out how to be impactful as a safety, and the linebacker play from Patrick Queen and company has been dreadful. I still have faith that they have what it takes to hold up their end of things, but it's a bigger question mark than it should be.
SG: Give me one under the radar player who could make a massive impact on Monday night.
SK: He may not qualify as under the radar at this point, at least for hardcore fans, but cornerback James Pierre comes to mind. After Darius Slay failed to keep Father Time at bay this season, Pierre stepped into a starting role for the first time in years, and he excelled.
If he and Joey Porter Jr. can make life difficult on the top receivers for the Texans, that will allow the pass rush to get home enough to potentially sway the game in Pittsburgh's favor.
SG: If the Steelers win on Monday night, what do you think the primary reason why will be?
SK: It will almost certainly be the defense finally showing up in the playoffs. Over the Steelers last five playoff games (all losses, by the way), they have allowed a staggering 38.8 points per game.
If the Texans can manage even two thirds of that scoring total, they are likely moving on to the Divisional round. Pittsburgh's offense is more equipped to get into a shootout compared to previous years, but they can't afford to do that against this Houston defense.