Welcome to the Week 18, Welcome to 2026 edition of 'Speaking with the Enemy,' a weekly feature here at Toro Times where I'll be sleuthing for some intel on each week's Houston Texans opponent.
This week, ahead of Houston's regular season finale against the Indianapolis Colts, I caught up with Lee Vowell of Horseshoe Heroes to fill us in on what we should be expecting from the reeling Colts in this Sunday's matchup between AFC South rivals.
Sonny Giuliano: Alright Lee, the last time we spoke, this was a drastically different Colts team, and for that matter, a different Texans team as well. It would be easy to point to the Daniel Jones injury as the biggest pivot point of the season for the Colts, but it felt like things were starting to come undone even before he suffered a season-ending injury. Is that accurate, or is it as simple as no Daniel Jones = no Playoffs for the Colts?
Lee Vowell: It's a bit more complicated than that. After all, when Jones tore his Achilles tendon in Week 14, Indy was already eighth in the AFC and would have been out of the playoffs. Injuries certainly took a toll on Indy as the team also missed DeForest Buckner and Charvarius Ward for a chunk of the season. But the schedule in the first half was soft, and the Colts took advantage of a way they couldn't do in the second half against far better teams. Had Jones stayed fully healthy (and not had a broken fibula as well), Indianapolis probably would have gotten another win somewhere and made the postseason, but they might not have lasted long once there.
SG: Obviously the Philip Rivers experiment was a huge story, so I'm obligated to ask about Grandpa's return to the NFL. How would you grade his three games with Indianapolis, and will Colts look back on those three games fondly a few years from now?
LV: Rivers was entering a no-win situation. The story was a good one because it was so surprising, and Rivers had a great attitude, but his physical skills were never the best, and they were far diminished after five years away. Based on what he could do physically, he probably earned a B grade. He was intelligent enough to make the offense efficient, but not physically able to create explosive plays consistently. Every good defense would have taken advantage of that.
In hindsight, fans might view having Rivers back as a fun thing that didn't work out, but it didn't work out because general manager Chris Ballard wasn't more aggressive in adding a real backup for Jones at the trade deadline. (Anthony Richardson was injured three weeks before the deadline.)
SG: What does this game mean for Riley Leonard? The Colts are reportedly planning to re-sign Daniel Jones this offseason, but could Leonard solidify himself as QB2 if he manages to hold up reasonably well against the league's best defense?
LV: Re-signing Jones should certainly be considered a hope instead of an assumption at this point. Indianapolis might not want to outbid another team, such as the Pittsburgh Steelers, for his services. He was brilliant for the first half of the season, but regressed even before he was hurt. And 2025 was the third season of his career that ended early because of injury.
For Leonard, the game might simply allow him to prove he belongs on the roster in 2026. He was decent in Week 14 after Jones was injured, but obviously, the Colts don't trust him much as Rivers was the immediate starter even after not playing for five years. If the team re-signs Jones, it still has Anthony Richardson, so Leonard would most likely be QB3 again.
SG: It seems like every year there is one unexpected Black Monday casualty, so is there even the slightest chance that Shane Steichen is on the hot seat and we don't totally know it yet?
LV: I think Steichen is definitely on the hot seat as he will have coached the Colts for three seasons, and his overall record would be a losing one. Is he a great offensive coach? Absolutely, but great head coaches can overcome injuries. Just look at what Kyle Shanahan has done with the San Francisco 49ers this year. Steichen should probably stay with the team, though Chris Ballard should be let go. He's had his job for nine years, the Colts have made the playoffs just twice in that time, and haven't won the AFC South once.
The Colts will probably keep Ballard and Steichen, though, due to the hot start to the season. This is also the team's first full offseason with Jim Irsay in decades. The current ownership group might not be ready to make wholesale changes.
SG: In your opinion, what should the priorities of the offseason be for Indianapolis this Spring?
LV: The Colts have a decent amount of cap space, but it could be gone quickly if they re-sign Daniel Jones. Besides Jones, though, the team must find the money to re-sign wide receiver Alec Pierce. He is the kind of difference-maker with his size and speed that Indy would not have otherwise.
Ballard traded Indianapolis's next two first-round draft picks for cornerback Sauce Gardner, so grabbing a high-end NFL-ready QB in round one is out of the question. The team has to re-sign Jones and Pierce, let right tackle Braden Smith walk in free agency, have a defense-heavy draft (especially along the defensive line and inside linebacker), and hope that the team stays healthier next year.
SG: You're already on record that the Texans will defeat the Colts on Sunday, so I'll rephrase the question I typically close things out with here... what would it take for the Colts cover +10.5?
LV: The Colts' defense must be great against the Texans for the game to be at all close. The issue is that Sauce Gardner, Charvarius Ward, and DeForest Buckner will all be out, so the talent is lacking, too. Offensively, Riley Leonard would have to play mistake-free, use his legs to pick up first downs, and eat play clock. Having Leonard's first career start against the elite Houston defense seems cruel, though. Indy being shut out wouldn't be shocking.