As if the 2025 season wasn't going to be challenging enough for a Houston Texans offense working in a new offensive coordinator and four new starters along the offensive line, back in July, the Texans were forced to place starting running back Joe Mixon on the non-football injury list.
Now nobody will mistake Joe Mixon as one of the top-tier running backs in the NFL. He isn't the caliber of player that guys like Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey or Jonathan Taylor have been, but what Mixon has been throughout his career is mind-numbingly consistent.
Since his second NFL season -- and with the exception of the 2020 campaign, when he was limited to just six games -- you could pencil Joe Mixon in for somewhere around 4 yards per carry and right in the neighborhood of 1,000 yards for the season. He has always been an innings eater, so to speak. Someone you could count on to carry the rock 15-20 times per game with a reasonable amount of success. In his career, he's amassed nearly 7,500 rushing yards and 60 rushing touchdowns.
Last year, his first with the Texans, Mixon finished with 1,016 yards, 11 touchdowns and an additional 36 receptions and 309 receiving yards. Those are solid, albeit unspectacular numbers, but they're numbers that the Texans weren't anticipating having to replace. But that's the position they're in now, and from the sounds of it, we shouldn't be expecting that Houston will get Mixon back in the fold any time soon.
“In a few weeks, we’ll probably have a better idea,” Texans general manager Nick Caserio said when asked about a timeline for Mixon's potential return. “He’s making progress. I wouldn’t put a particular timetable on it. . . . Once we kinda get to that period, probably have a better sense of which way it’s gonna go for the duration of the year.”
Perhaps I'm being something of a pessimist here, but this response reads to me like Caserio actually wants to say, 'Guys can we just give this a break for a bit? Joe's probably not coming back this year, but can you just ease up with these questions? I promise we'll give you an official update when we actually have one.'
But even if we just go ahead and assume Mixon probably isn't going to see the field this year, it raises an important question... do the Houston Texans really need Joe Mixon?
Can Nick Chubb and Woody Marks replicate Joe Mixon's output?
Last year, with Joe Mixon serving as the bell-cow back in Houston, the Texans finished 15th in the NFL in rushing yards per game (112.3)... a respectable enough ground attack to help keep the offense afloat when the offensive line was surrendering pressures on CJ Stroud just about every time he dropped back to pass.
Through five games this season, the Texans are ranked 16th in rushing yards per game, but rushing for almost four more yards per game (116.2) than they were during the 2024 season. Thus far, carries have been split among veteran Nick Chubb (58 attempts for 259 yards) and 4th-round rookie Woody Marks (36 attempts for 137 yards). CJ Stroud, who rushed for only 233 yards in his second NFL season, is already up to 122 yards this year.
Whether Chubb and Marks can continue to keep the Texans right in the middle of the pack as a rushing offense remains to be seen. Chubb has had numerous seasons cut short due to injury, and he's on the wrong side of 30 already. Marks showed a flash of brilliance in Houston's 26-0 win over the Tennessee Titans, but saw his usage and success dip in last week's road win in Baltimore.
Unless Marks ends up overtaking Chubb as the leader in carries, I can't imagine the Texans will be able to consistently run the ball as well as they did last year. Perhaps Chubb can make it through a 17 game slate averaging over 10 carries per game, but I have my doubts.
However, I'm more doubtful that Joe Mixon will be back at all.