From 2023-2025, the Houston Texans went a combined 20-14 with back-to-back AFC South Titles and two consecutive trips to the AFC Divisional round. Along the way, the main obstacles for their continued divisional supremacy were the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Indianapolis Colts. In the same span, the Jaguars went 13-21 with no playoff berths, while the Colts went 17-17 with no playoff games either.
This past season, Jacksonville finally broke through with a 13-4 record and the AFC South crown, while Houston qualified for the postseason (Wildcard) with a 12-5 record and the Colts ended their campaign 8-9 and out of the playoffs after a seven-game losing streak (mainly due to a season altering fractured fibula/ruptured achilles to quarterback Daniel Jones).
In truth, the Colts looked like the biggest threat in the division after 10 weeks, as they stormed out to an 8-2 mark by way of a resurgent Jones and MVP-level play by perennial home run-hitting All-Pro running back Jonathan Taylor. The extremely disappointing regular season ending notwithstanding, their historic offensive output and short-lived dominance of the AFC should certainly have caused Indy's front office to quickly "run it back" with their current personnel and continue to be the proverbial "thorn in the side" of the Texans' Super Bowl aspirations, right?
Thankfully for Houston, things are never that simple. For you see, Tuesday was the NFL's deadline day for applying franchise tags, and the Colts were at the forefront of the news cycle due to having to decide between paying their quarterback in Jones or star wide receiver Alec Pierce (had a career year in 2025). Without being able to accomplish either, the Colts ended up handing the transition tag to Jones and allowing Pierce to test free agency. It's a colossal gamble by Indianapolis, one that just made the Texans' chances of reclaiming the AFC South in 2026 that much easier.
The Texans can face a Colts team with neither Jones nor Pierce in 2026
The gamble is in the fact that the Colts could theoretically lose both their starting quarterback and best wide receiver this year in free agency in the event that both parties receive offers from interested teams that the Colts just wouldn't be willing to match.
In Pierce's case, he's free and clear to negotiate with any team completely unabated. According to reports, Pierce could demand a deal anywhere from $25-$30 million, which could price him out of Indy. Via X, NFL reporter Evan Sidery expressed that, "The 49ers, Bills, Giants, Patriots, and Raiders are all expected to pursue Pierce as the top free agent wide receiver."
Translation: After torching the Texans for a total of 8 catches for 210 yards and three touchdowns in 2025, he'd be someone else's headache to deal with next season.
For Jones, the transition tag makes it to where he can negotiate freely with other teams, but the Colts maintain the right to match any offer he receives. Worst case scenario, this could spell disaster for Indianapolis, as Horseshoe Heroes' Lee Vowell explains,
"Jones can agree to a deal somewhere else for more than the franchise tag would have paid him, and the Colts would get nothing back in return."
There's the kicker. Because Jones has the transition tag and not the full franchise tag, the Colts would lose Jones without any draft capital coming in if Jones finds a team that breaks the bank for his services. In that scenario, Indy would lose two of the most impactful pieces of last year's league campaign without an immediate plan to overcome the gaping holes they would leave behind.
The Texans benefit greatly from a Colts collapse in free agency
It would be Christmas in March for Houston, as one of their biggest Divisional opponents would then be hamstrung by crushing roster losses and essentially have their new season ended before it even began.
It's not that the Texans necessarily needed the help, as their league-best defense has shown itself more than capable of shutting down any type of offense in their path. However, any time an opposing team seemingly does half of the work for you, then more power to them.
The Texans have their own roster upgrades that they have to make, along with fending off the Jaguars. Yet, Indianapolis is definitely taking some of the pressure off of them in the meantime.