Texans' opening NFL playoff odds signal that oddsmakers expect them to win AFC South

Oddsmakers are buying Houston in 2024 after the franchise’s run to a division title last season. 
Jan 20, 2024; Baltimore, MD, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) runs the ball against the Ravens in the AFC playoffs.
Jan 20, 2024; Baltimore, MD, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) runs the ball against the Ravens in the AFC playoffs. / Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

A lot can change in a year. 

At this time last year, Houston was coming off a 3-13-1 season. The Texans had not missed the playoffs for the third consecutive year (11-38-1 in that stretch), had no answer at quarterback and had just hired its third head coach in as many seasons. 

DeMeco Ryans turned out to be the right hire for the struggling franchise and Houston used the No. 2 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft to take C.J. Stroud, who proved to be a franchise-changing quarterback. 

Houston, which had a preseason win total of 6.5 games, won seven of its final 10 games to win a stunning AFC South title. Stroud, who was later named the NFL’s Rookie of the Year, led Houston to a first-round playoff win over the Cleveland Browns with 274 passing yards and 3 touchdowns. 

Despite a lopsided loss in the AFC Divisional Round to top-seeded Baltimore, expectations sky-high for the Texans heading into the 2024-25 season and oddsmakers are believing the hype. 

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Houston Texans 2024 Playoff Odds

According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Houston is a slight favorite to return to the playoffs for the second-straight year at -140 ($100 bet wins $71.43), which carries an implied probability of 58.33% that the Texans will make the AFC’s postseason. 

Houston is the only team in the AFC South favored to make the playoffs with the Jacksonville Jaguars (+100), Indianapolis Colts (+160) and Tennessee Titans (+425) all underdogs in the postseason picture, according to DraftKings.

Those odds factor in a potential Wild Card berth. What about for the division? Can Houston capture back-to-back AFC South crowns? 

Per DraftKings, Houston is a AFC South favorite at +135 ($100 bet wins $135), which is an implied probability of 42.55% that the Texans will win the AFC South in consecutive seasons for the fourth time in franchise history.

Stroud Getting MVP Love

Of course, quarterback is the most important position in football. To prove that, all you have to do is look at the odds board to be named the NFL’s Most Valuable Player next season. 

Currently on DraftKings, Stroud, who threw for over 4,100 yards and 23 touchdowns last season, is the eighth favorite to win the MVP at +1400 ($100 bet wins $1,400). 

The Texans kept the majority of its skilled position players by resigning tight end Dalton Schultz to a three-year extension and inking wide receiver Noah Brown to a one-year deal. Houston also traded with the Cincinnati Bengals for Pro Bowl running back Joe Mixon.

Odds update periodically and are subject to change.