Texans NFL playoff odds, scenarios and prediction ahead of Week 18

The Houston Texans control their own destiny heading into Week 18 of the NFL season

Houston Texans defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins (98) celebrates his touchdown off a ball fumbled by
Houston Texans defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins (98) celebrates his touchdown off a ball fumbled by / Denny Simmons / The Tennessean / USA
facebooktwitterreddit

The Houston Texans have a chance to pull off the improbable move of improving from being the worst team in the NFL to a playoff team just a year later.

Many people expected them to be a much better team in 2023, but few people expect them to vault themselves into a potential playoff position but that's exactly where they're at heading into the final week of the regular season. Not only do they have a shot at the playoffs, but they control their own destiny heading into Week 18.

Texans playoff odds

According to oddsmakers, it's a near coin flip for the Texans to make the postseason. +100 odds gives them an implied probability of 50% to make the playoffs and a $100 bet on them to do so would win your a profit of $100 if they're able to achieve the feat.

Not only do they have a chance of making the playoffs, but they're also still alive in the race for the AFC South. They have much longer odds to win the division as they not only need to win their Week 18 game, but they also need some help with another matchup. +420 odds gives them an implied probability of 19.23% of winning the division.

Texans playoff scenarios

Things are very simple for the Texans in Week 18 in terms of them making the playoffs. If they win, they're in. If they lose, they're out.

If the Texans beat the Colts but the Jaguars also beat the Titans, the Texans will lock up a wild card spot. If the Texans win but the Titans beat the Jaguars, Houston will be the AFC South champion.

If the Texans lose to the Colts, no other result matters as they'll be eliminated from the playoffs. It truly is that simple for Houston. This is a must-win game for the Texans.

Texans playoff prediction

The AFC South may be a bit of a longshot as the Jaguars are set as significant favorites to take care of business against the Titans to lock up the division, but I think it's going to be the Texans who come out on top against the Colts and lock up a wild card berth.

The fact they have to play on the road is working against them, but they have been the overall better team this season, ranking 11th in Net Yards per Play at +0.2 compared to the Colts who rank 17th at 0.0.

The Colts were able to beat the Texans back in Week 2, but with how young this Houston squad is, it's improved significantly as the season has progressed and I think we can all agree the Texans have the best playmaker in this AFC South matchup in CJ Stroud.

If you want to bet on the Texans to win the division, make the playoffs, or beat the Colts in Week 18, be sure to place your bets over at FanDuel Sportsbook. If you click the link below to sign up for an account, you'll receive $150 in bonus bets when you place your first $5 wager!

Bet on the Texans at FanDuel now!


Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!