The AFC South is weak.
We talked about this before as well. The AFC might be loaded but the AFC South is easily the weakest division in the conference. I've said before if the Texans played in the NFC, they'd have a real shot at a playoff spot. Lucky for them, they can earn a playoff bid by taking the weak AFC South.
The Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts will probably be starting rookies this season, at least at some point. Ryan Tannehill could start for the Titans early in the season, but he's at the end of his career, and I've never been a fan of his play. Whether it's Tannehill, Malik Willis, or rookie Will Levis, the Titans don't have much at the quarterback spot.
I know the Texans are starting a rookie quarterback too, but here is the thing, I'm far more confident in Stroud right now than I am of Levis and Richardson. I do like the Colts rookie, Anthony Richardson, but I think he's got a bigger learning curve than Stroud. We'll get more into Stroud later.
The bottom line here is the Texans will sweep the Titans, and I think the more likely scenario is they split with the Colts. If they can split with the Jaguars, that puts them at a 4 - 2 division record and in good shape to maybe get the AFC South title.