Recent reports have indicated several teams contacted the San Francisco 49ers asking about a possible trade involving the third overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft, Trey Lance. Who these teams are, is anyone's guess but I believe the Houston Texans should be one of those teams.
Sources: The #49ers have received inquiries from several teams looking into a potential trade for former No. 3 pick QB Trey Lance. The conversations have been the result of SF fielding the calls, not making them, with teams aware that Brock Purdy is likely the future starter. pic.twitter.com/ddOZjZq5Xn
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) April 19, 2023
The Texans currently hold the number two overall pick in the upcoming NFL draft. There is speculation they might select one of either CJ Stroud or Will Anderson; however, there have been several mocks and rumors linking them to the likes of Tyree Wilson and Anthony Richardson. While Lance hasn't proven a lot at the NFL level, he's certainly proven more than any of the incoming rookies.
Would the trade be a straight-across deal, the Texans number two overall for Lance? I'm not sure that's a deal I would go for but maybe they could package the 12th overall and another later-round selection, to make a deal work. Houston has 12 picks in this draft, so they have some assets to work with. Let's look at the alternative of giving the 49ers the second overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Should the Houston Texans include the second overall pick in a deal?
Here's the issue though, if we take the draft value chart and use that to assign a value to Lance, he was the third overall pick, which is worth 2200 points. For the Texans to match that, it would cost them the 12th, 65th and 73rd selections; however, if they include the second overall pick, the 49ers would then have to add one of their picks to match.
The difference in value between the second and third picks is 400 points, according to the draft chart value. So, the 49ers would have to give up more than just Lance, if the Texans include the second pick in the trade. The problem with that, is the 49ers don't have a pick in this draft higher than 99, which is valued at 104 points. San Francisco would have to add a few more picks to get there.
If the 49ers did this, they would need to include their 99th, 100th and 101st picks in the deal and still fall short; however, if the Texans were willing, they would be giving up the second overall selection and gaining Trey Lance, plus three more picks in the top 101 picks of the draft. That would give them 14 picks in the draft and Lance.