The 2025 NFL season is finally here! Sunday, the Houston Texans begin their quest for a third-straight AFC South title when they open their 2025 campaign against the Los Angeles Rams.
Despite recent success, however, some experts are not so optimistic about the teams’ chances at a three-peat.
On Wednesday, ESPN’s senior NFL writer Bill Barnwell wrote an article predicting the 14 teams that will make the 2025 NFL playoffs. Barnwell did place some constraints on himself in making his predictions. Using recent history as his starting point, he was only allowed to select eight teams from the 2024 playoffs to return to the postseason.
Of those eight, only four could be division winners, which didn't include the Texans.
Latest prediction doesn't add much optimism to the Texans' chances in 2025
Despite being the overwhelming favorites to win the AFC South, Barnwell predicted the Jacksonville Jaguars would capture the title, while the Texans would be watching at home come January.
“In a vacuum, without needing to pick three division winners to miss the postseason, I'd probably still peg the Texans as the favorites to win the AFC South, if only because C.J. Stroud offers such a high floor at quarterback.” Barnwell wrote. “If I'm operating under the idea that I need to pick three division winners to miss the postseason entirely, though? Houston seems more vulnerable than any of the five teams I picked above.”
Of last season’s divisional winners, he predicted the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore Ravens, and Detroit Lions to return to the playoffs this season.
Barnwell’s prediction for the Texans is understandable.
After an impressive rookie campaign, Stroud returned to earth last season, throwing for 3,727 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions in 17 games. He was also sacked 52 times in 2024, second-most in the league. As he enters year three, Stroud will have a new and unproven offensive line protecting him, led by rookie Aireontae Ersery at left tackle and veteran Tytus Howard at right tackle.
Despite the question marks on offense, Houston's defense should once again be among the best in the league. Houston's front seven is led by defensive ends Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr., who each ranked in the top ten in sacks last season. The Texans' secondary might be the best unit on the team, however.
"Going based off of last year, plus the guys we got now, we should lead in interceptions probably by at least about 10 to 15," Texans cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. told ESPN in July.
In addition to Stingley Jr., Kamari Lassiter, and safety Calen Bullock, the team improved its secondary by adding veteran C.J. Gardner-Johnson in a trade with the Eagles this offseason. Gardner-Johnson (knee), who is expected to suit up in Week 1, tied for third in the NFL with six interceptions last season.
Whether Stroud is better protected this season or not, the strength of Houston’s defense alone should keep them in contention for another AFC South title in 2025. ESPN’s NFL Football Power Index gives the Texans a 54.3% chance to win the division in 2025. The Jaguars are the next closest AFC South team with 39.3% odds.