By now you're likely aware of all of the postseason scenarios awaiting the Houston Texans depending on how things play out across the NFL this weekend, so therefore you know that if the Texans handle business against the Indianapolis Colts AND get an unexpected boost in the form of a Tennessee Titans victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Texans would then claim the AFC North crown for the third consecutive year.
As unlikely as it may be that the 3-13 Titans score an upset over the 12-4, winners of 7 in a row Jaguars, crazier things have certainly happened, and because that's the case, the Texans, who could opt to keep starters out of their game against the Colts on Sunday in order to prioritize rest and preserve good health, will instead play their starters with hopes that the Titans unexpectedly come through for them.
“We still have an opportunity to win our division,” Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans said Monday, according to Jonathan Alexander of the Houston Chronicle. “That’s always the goal each and every year — to win the division. We know we need help from the Titans to be able to do that, so we’re going and playing our guys.”
But with this statement, Ryans left out one key point, and for the record, it makes sense why he would.
Assuming that both the Texans AND the Jaguars win on Sunday, the Texans would lock down the 5 seed in the AFC, remaining ahead of both the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card standings based on head to head victories over both teams. This then presents a scenario where the Texans would go on the road in the opening round of the Playoffs, but that road game would be in either Pittsburgh or Baltimore, depending on who wins the regular season finale this Sunday night.
Historically, going into Pittsburgh or Baltimore has been a death sentence for Houston, as the Texans have a combined 2-10 record against these two AFC North powerhouses. But these are not your older brother's Steelers and Ravens. Both Pittsburgh and Baltimore are hovering around .500, and if the Ravens win this Sunday night, the AFC North will produce a division winner with just 9 wins for the first time ever.
These are two flawed football teams who would likely enter Wild Card weekend as home underdogs against a Texans team that has the second-longest winning streak (8 games) of the season behind only an 11-game run by the Denver Broncos. And although DeMeco Ryans may not admit it to the media, or hell, maybe even to his own team, this is undoubtedly part of the calculus for Houston playing their starters in the final game of the season.