The notion that CJ Stroud could be one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL may seem slightly far-fetched to the casual observer, but it was only about two years ago when we were declaring that the Houston Texans signal-caller was having one of the greatest rookie seasons ever, and even pondering whether he should be a legitimate candidate to win MVP.
Since then, Stroud's fall from grace has been gradual, surprising, and probably slightly overblown. In his sophomore season, Stroud played behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL and lost two of his top three receivers, and yet the Texans still advanced to the Divisional Round of the Playoffs for the second straight season.
This year, an up and down start gave Texans fans even more reason for concerns, especially since changes were made along the entire offensive line and at play-caller, with Nick Caley replacing Bobby Slowik at the conclusion of the 2024 campaign.
But still, there have been the occasional flashes of the old CJ Stroud throughout the early weeks of the season, giving fans in Houston a glimmer of hope that Stroud's ceiling is what we all believed it was at the end of his rookie year. The 24-year-old's performance against the San Francisco 49ers last Sunday was the most compelling piece of evidence yet that this is who Stroud truly is.
With the exception of an errant pass that was intercepted on the final play of the 2nd quarter, CJ Stroud was practically flawless in the 26-15 win over the NFC West-leading Niners. Stroud shredded San Francisco's injury-riddled defense, completing 30-of-39 passes for 318 yards and a pair of scores. There was seemingly nothing Robert Saleh's group could do to get Houston off the field.
According to ESPN's DJ Bien-Aime, Stroud was 15-for-18 for 144 yards and a score when the 49ers dropped seven into coverage. He was just as lethal when the Niners sent a blitz, completing 11-of-13 passes for 91 yards and another touchdown. For this, some credit should go to Houston's offensive line, the ragtag group of pass-catchers who stepped up with Nico Collins out, and Nick Caley, who called his best game of the year on Sunday.
But again, all of this ultimately comes back to CJ Stroud, and after the game, Stroud himself made it clear that he believe this wasn't an aberration... it's what we should expect the norm to be.
"I know what I can do. I know I'm a top guy in this league when I'm rolling," Stroud said, per DJ Bien-Aime. "I just got to keep that going."
CJ Stroud's 2025 season trending in the right direction
If Stroud's statement ends up being foreshadowing, then it's terrible news for the rest of the NFL, because for as solid as the Texans defense was in 2023, the group is far superior this season. Combine Stroud at rookie season form with the league's best defense, and suddenly we have a bonafide championship contender on our hands. CJ Stroud hasn't strung together consecutive games of this quality yet this season, but still, it's clear he's trending in the direction.
Season | Passing Yards Per Game | Completion Percentage | Passer Rating | Touchdown to Interception Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | 273.9 | 63.9% | 100.8 | 1.53-0.33 |
2024 | 219.2 | 63.2% | 87.0 | 1.18-0.71 |
2025 | 231.9 | 66.8% | 93.7 | 1.57-0.71 |
And since we've already turned this column into a Chart Exhibit, allow me to hit you with one that will provide Texans fans some reason for hope that this outing is a sign of a full-fledged breakout over the second half of this season.
Year | Passing Yards | Touchdowns | Completion Percentage | Passer Rating | Team Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023, Games 1-7 | 1,800 | 9 | 60.3 | 94.9 | 3-4 |
2025, Games 1-7 | 1,623 | 11 | 66.8% | 93.7 | 3-4 |
You could make the case that the first seven weeks of Stroud's 2025 season have been even better than the same sample size during his rookie season and you wouldn't get much pushback. It was Houston's eighth game of the year during the 2023 season -- a home matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- in which the Stroud hype train really took off.
If Stroud manages to do the same against the Denver Broncos defense this Sunday, we'll know his 'top guy' declaration is one that holds a lot of weight.