Even though there are still 40 players who are yet to be revealed on the 2026 NFL Top 100 Players list, I think it's more than safe to say that the Houston Texans will not be seeing their 24-year-old quarterback make the cut this offseason.
After Denver Broncos All-Pro tackle Garrett Bolles and Pittsburgh Steelers All-Pro defensive end T.J. Watt both made the 42nd and 41st spots respectively this past Friday morning, it represented the final bit of opportunity that C.J. Stroud had left to have any level of a "slide" before making his appearance on the chart. Personally, I thought Stroud was in trouble the moment I saw San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy make the list at 85th-overall. Then, my concerns kicked into overdrive as soon as the Baltimore Ravens' two-time MVP in signal caller Lamar Jackson fell 67 spots all the way down to 69th-overall.
If it indeed is the case, then Stroud has been given a massive signal from his contemporaries and peers from around the league that he's neither one of the best young players at his position, nor a high-enough caliber player to make the list of the NFL's finest regardless of position. Then, the real kicker is the fact that he's also not even considered better than his draft-mate in quarterback Bryce Young, who at least made the list at 98th-overall (who was benched in his second season as a starter in 2024).
There are several reasons for why I believe that Stroud has unofficially -- yet officially -- missed out on the player-driven honor heading into his fourth NFL season.
Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud missed the NFL Top 100 for several reasons
C.J. Stroud has been trending downward since his rookie season
Stroud debuted on the NFL Top 100 list at 20th-overall in 2024 after his legendary 2023 rookie season. He then slid to 39th-overall ahead of the 2025 regular season, after what some considered a problematic -- yet still somewhat effective -- second year in the 2024 campaign. Then you have this past season, where the NFL world watched as Stroud and his offense cratered the early portions of Houston's schedule to the tune of an 0-3 start. His backup quarterback Davis Mills then put on a Superman cape and helped stabilize the team with a 3-0 record from Week 10-Week 12, which effectively saved their playoff chances.
If Stroud fell that far after one bumpy offseason, then it's very realistic to believe that Stroud could be penalized with an even greater loss (61 spots) after what we all witnessed this past season.
The other listed quarterbacks have better reputations as of right now
So far, the quarterbacks who've made the list are:
- No. 98: Bryce Young (Carolina Panthers)
- No. 85: Brock Purdy (San Francisco 49ers)
- No. 77: Baker Mayfield (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
- No. 72: Jordan Love (Green Bay Packers)
- No. 69 Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens)
- No. 62: Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars)
- No. 59: Bo Nix (Denver Broncos)
- No. 56: Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia Eagles)
- No. 51: Caleb Williams (Chicago Bears)
- No. 44: Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals)
Even though multiple names on this list had injury problems throughout the 2025 season (namely Purdy, Jackson and Burrow), all of these passers finished the season with a much more intact public reputation than that of Stroud. Even on the positional rankings list of ESPN Senior NFL reporter Jeremy Fowler, Stroud didn't even make the honorable mentions category of the top-ten at his position, which then categorized him as a "tier-seven" quarterback (along with Nix and Indianapolis Colt Daniel Jones).
The NFL Top 100 list has seen some surprising placements in 2026
This year's list has been considered very controversial. One of the largest reasons why would be due to how many big-name players have lost massive amounts fo real estate ahead of their announcement for the group. With Jackson's 69th-overall designation being the most egregious, you then have names like Watt who fell 30 spots from 11th last season to 31st now.
Kansas City Chiefs star defensive end Chris Jones also slid 31 spots from 12th last season to 43rd now. Along with him, you have Burrow who dropped 38 spots from sixth-best last season to 44th this year. Again, this is a player driven list that -- allegedly -- only takes into account the proceeding season as a basis for the list. With that in mind, if that many accolade-laden players have been hemorrhaging that much ranking space year-over-year, then Stroud doesn't really have a chance.
We've seen this movie before with Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott in 2018
Similar to Stroud, Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott also had a meteoric rise to prominence as a result of his explosive rookie year in 2016. Prescott generated 3,500 yards passing and a roughly 6-1 touchdown to interception ratio, which helped launch the Cowboys to a 13-3 record and the number one-overall seed in the NFC. This resulted in Prescott debuting at 14th-overall in the 2017 NFL Top 100 list as recognition for his historic accomplishments the season prior.
However, an uneven sophomore season in 2017 was very costly to Prescott, as he managed to miss the entirety of the list in the 2018 offseason (2018's list). During that campaign, the Cowboys regressed from 13-3 and the number-one seed to 9-7 and missing the playoffs completely. Prescott's play contributed to the spiral, as he passed for over 3,300 yards, yet had one less passing touchdown, ballooned his interceptions total by nine (four in 2016, 13 in 2017) and dropped his passer rating from 104.9 (2016) to 86.6.
It's startling how similar Prescott's early career arc is to Stroud's in this capacity. Both had borderline-legendary rookie seasons, which were then followed up by what could be considered "sub-par" campaigns compared to that of their first years in the league. And now, Stroud will most likely join Prescott as seeing his stock go in the toilet in short order after just being considered one of the best at the position all of two years ago.
The Houston Texans' young passer has a lot to prove in 2026
Stroud may not even care about the results of this list. However, the public perception suggests that his stock is lower than it's ever been before. From sections of the fan base, to NFL analysts and now his own peer group, Stroud will have to earn back all the equity that he built up during his historic 2023 run.
The reality is, Stroud is playing for a contract extension in 2026 if he and the team aren't able to strike an agreement in exactly six week's time. Fortunately, it appears that conversations have been "positive" and that the organization is fully behind Stroud as their long-term answer at the position. If that's the case, then this list will be proven to be just another blip on the radar for Stroud as he continues his progression towards regaining his standing as one of the league's best.
I will say though, if Stroud was a "bulletin board material" kind of guy, then he just received an early Christmas gift of an opportunity to prove a bevy of naysayers wrong.
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