Are the 2026 Texans "AFC Championship game or bust"?

No matter what the Texans do in the 2026 regular season, all eyes will be on their 0-7 Divisional Round record. Should that be the case?
AFC Divisional Playoffs: Houston Texans v New England Patriots
AFC Divisional Playoffs: Houston Texans v New England Patriots | Adam Glanzman/GettyImages

In his end-of-the-year press conference held this past Wednesday afternoon, Texans general manager Nick Caserio opened the session by stating, "We have had the best three-year stretch in the history of the franchise. We don't take that lightly. We understand there is still some work in front of us, and that's a challenge that lies ahead."

From 2020-2022, the Texans went a combined 11-38-1 in the regular season and finished in the bottom five in the NFL all three campaigns. Then, from 2023-2025, Houston has completely flipped the script and gone 32-19, including back-to-back AFC South titles and three consecutive AFC postseason berths for the first time in franchise history (their 12-5 record this time gave them three-straight years of 10+ wins in a season, their longest streak all time).

More accolades of note:

  • Three consecutive AFC Wildcard wins (longest streak in team history)
  • 107-32 combined margin of victory in the Wildcard round
  • Most playoff wins by a single quarterback in franchise postseason history (Stroud, 3)
  • Most playoff wins by a single coach in franchise postseason history (Ryans, 3)
  • Tie for most playoff games coached by a single coach in franchise history (Ryans, 6)
  • Highest regular season winning % for a coach in franchise history (Ryans, .627)

An empty feeling in Houston

And yet, a hollow feeling still engulfs fans of the team as they embark on another journey into the offseason. Why? Because yet again, after another promising regular season finish, followed by just as promising a first-round victory, Houston was again sent home empty-handed by an AFC opponent in the Divisional round of the playoffs.

An abysmal 0-6 record in such games has now become a grotesque 0-7, which led fans and media to a collective eye-roll at the club at the season's official end this past Sunday in Foxborough.

The Texans are the only team in the NFL to have never gone to a Conference Championship game, and this past season was looked at as the best chance for them to do it since their inception in 2002. There was no Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson or Trevor Lawrence in their way. They had their own young gunslinger in C.J. Stroud while also owning the NFL's best overall defense through 18 weeks of play.

Alas, their Super Bowl hopes faded just as quickly as they began, as they fell to the New England Patriots 28-16 at Gillette Stadium and are now pondering their immediate future.

Nowhere to go but up?

While they have had their best three-year stretch in team history, where do they go from here? Certainly, Caserio and co. will reshape the roster in hopes of making another deep playoff run. However, are the Texans now at the point where the only thing that matters to onlookers will be whether or not they can finally advance to the AFC title game?

There will be more regular-season wins, and even the potential for another AFC South crown in 2026, but the appeal of those realities won't appease those who only care about not seeing 0-8 on the Divisional round resume.

Houston absolutely must get over the proverbial hump sooner rather than later, and that starts with an offseason filled with urgent self-scouting and significant personnel decisions (specifically, the offensive side of the ball). It will arguably be the biggest offseason in the team's now 25-year history.

While the fanbase is grateful as a whole to be out of the doldrums of the AFC cellar, the fact is, there's a hunger in the city for more.

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