Following a pair of wins in Week 4 and Week 5, the Houston Texans entered their Week 6 bye with some semblance of momentum, a surprise considering how dire things looked after Week 3's loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars put Houston in an 0-3 hole.
There's certainly a case to be made that in what has been an unexpectedly unpredictable AFC, Houston isn't in a bad position as they prepare for trip to the Pacific Northwest to face the Seattle Seahawks on Monday Night Football. But just how optimistic should Texans fans be as their team comes out of the bye week?
Let's take a look at three reasons for optimism (bright spots from the first five games of the season) and two reasons for concern (harsh truths that rain on the parade of anyone who isn't even considering a scenario other than one where the Texans cruise the rest of the way) for the Houston Texans moving forward this season.
Bright Spot #1 - It took until Week 4, but the Houston Texans offense is finally building some momentum
Hey, better late than never, right? Following three duds in the first three weeks of the season, the Texans offense finally showed a little bit of spark late in their 26-0 win over the Tennessee Titans, and then had their best start-to-finish performance of the season in a 44-10 victory against the Baltimore Ravens.
Take a look at just how much more smoothly Houston's offense operated in Weeks 4 and 5 than it did in Weeks 1 through 3.
Category | Weeks 1-3 | Weeks 4-5 |
|---|---|---|
Points Per Game | 12.6 points per game | 35.0 points per game |
Total Yards Per Game | 267.3 yards per game | 385.0 yards per game |
3rd Down Conversions | 24% | 48% |
CJ Stroud's Passer Rating | 76.9 | 139.2 |
Total Turnovers | 5 | 0 |
Sack Yardage Lost Per Game | 27.3 yards per game | 13.0 yards per game |
It's like a completely different team took the field in those last two games, and sure, this could be chalked up to, 'Well, the Texans are still getting used to a new offensive coordinator and four new starters on the offensive line.' That checks out and makes a lot of sense, but theoretically, the comfort level should only increase moving forward, so to me, this is a good sign.
Harsh Truth #1 - That momentum came at the expense of the Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens defenses
Devil's advocate checking in, and I'd like to remind you that these two promising offensive performances can also be chalked out to the quality of opponent that the Texans were playing. After Week 6, the Baltimore Ravens and Tennessee Titans both rank in the bottom ten in points allowed, QB hurry percentage and yards per play.
Also, the Titans have already fired their head coach and the Ravens are the 2025 Season From Hell Team (© Bill Simmons). Put simply, these two teams don't necessarily represent the highest quality of competition.
Houston's offensive competency will be put to the test on Monday Night Football in Week 7 against a Seahawks defense that just so happens to rank in the top ten in each of those three categories listed above.
Bright Spot #2 - The young playmakers are starting to make plays
Shout out to Woody Marks, Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, a trio of first-year players who have all managed to find the end zone at least once in their first five career games. It's not like any of these guys were considered can't-miss prospects coming out of college, so the fact that they've already carved out a niche in Houston's offense is a sign that they've earned the trust of DeMeco Ryans, Nick Caley and the entire Texans offensive coaching staff.
Marks in particular seems like a standout. The 2025 4th round pick was the fantasy football community's darling after his Week 4 breakout versus Tennessee, but then in Week 5 he saw his touches dip back down to 7, the same as third-string running back Dameon Pierce and four fewer than veteran Nick Chubb.
Don't be surprised if Houston continues to utilize a backfield by commitee, though that's contingent on Chubb's ability to remain healthy.
Harsh Truth #2 - It doesn't appear that the early season success of the Indianapolis Colts is a fluke
This is a difficult pill to swallow, because with the exception of a pair of games against their AFC South foe in Weeks 13 and 18, Indianapolis' success is completely out of the hands of the Houston Texans.
The Colts schedule does stiffen up over the next couple of months, but a relatively soft slate that has resulted in a 5-1 record through six weeks, which has given Indy a leg up and a sizable cushion moving forward. Houston has won two in a row and boasts arguably the best defense in the NFL, yet they're 2.5 games back in the division? That's a tough break.
To make matters worse, even though Indianapolis has certainly benefited from a manageable schedule early on, all of the metrics say that this team is not just competent, but legitimately solid.
Daniel Jones is playing inspired football, likely a result of heading to the Colts and thus giving everyone the opportunity to tag him with the 'Indiana Jones' nickname, which is significantly stronger than 'Danny Dimes'. Jonathan Taylor is on the short-list of players who will contend for Offensive Player of the Year, and Tyler Warren may already be one of the three best tight ends in the NFL.
Add all of that up, and you've got a team that ranks 1st in scoring, 4th in total yards, and is presently sitting atop the entire AFC.
Bright Spot #3 - The Houston Texans defense can go punch for punch with the Indianapolis Colts' league-best scoring offense
As I've covered previously, while the Colts boast the league's top scoring offense, the Texans come to the party with one of the top scoring defenses of the last quarter-century. And opponents be damned, this actually feels at least somewhat sustainable.
Houston has managed to keep all five of its opponents -- Los Angeles Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens -- below their season scoring average, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if this was a tune we were singing after nearly every game this season, and that includes those two late season showdowns still to come against the Colts.