The Houston Texans (1-7-1) have a Week 11 date with the Washington Commanders (5-5), who are riding high after they just beat the previously undefeated Philadelphia Eagles. The Texans lost a hard fought game last week to Washington’s division rivals, the New York Giants. In order for the Texans to have a chance to beat this hot, but definitely beatable team, I think there are 3 things defensively that Lovie Smith and Co. need to focus on.
1.) Houston Texans Run Defense Needs to Show Up
Stopping the run is something the Houston Texans haven’t been able to do all season. The stats back that point up, they allow 182 yards a game at 5.2 yards per carry. Which if you didn’t realize already, are both really bad numbers. They’ve played against some really good Running Backs to help inflate that number (Derrick Henry, Saquan Barkley, Jonathan Taylor etc.) but have also allowed some mediocre RBs to go off for massive days (Im looking at you, Khalil Herbert). The Washington Commanders have a really solid running back room involving Brian Robinson Jr. and Antonio Gibson. Robinson Jr. being more of the bruiser RB and Gibson the more finesse runner and pass catcher out of the backfield. They ran on the backs of these two men to grind out a win against Philadelphia last week, carrying the ball 40 times total between the two of them. It doesn’t take a genius to realize they will probably try the same gameplan against the NFL’s worst ranked rushing defense.
2.) Force Taylor Heinicke into bad throws and turnovers
The Washington Commanders are 3-1 this season with Taylor Heinicke at the helm, but he hasn’t been a perfect QB by any stretch of the imagination. He only has 5 touchdowns to 4 interceptions and a 62% completion percentage, stats that obviously aren’t great. It’s well known that Heinicke isn’t afraid to sling the ball around the yard and he has a history of playing pretty fearlessly, despite having an average to below average arm. He has given the Commanders a spark as a team, leading a lifeless 2-4 football team to 5-5. Despite his limitations, the team loves and rallies around Heinicke and they play hard for him. If Houston can force an early Heinicke turnover or a few short drives from Washington, it could kill their momentum they carry from last week and help Houston potentially deliver an upset.
3.) Bend but Don’t Break Defense
If the Texans can force the Commanders into Field Goals instead of Touchdowns when they drive down the field, I think Houston has a fighting chance in this game. Houston has been slightly below average in red zone defense at 19th in the NFL, while Washington is slightly above average in red zone offense at 12th. It’s almost certain Washington will move the ball against this objectively bad Houston Texans defense, but if they can slow the running game down from Washington and also slow down Terry Mclaurin (A tall ask for Houston, considering Derek Stingley Jr has already been ruled out) in the red zone then the Texans could at bare minimum keep this game a one score game.
I don’t think anyone is really picking the Houston Texans to win this game, and although unlikely, it also is very possible for them to squeak out a win. Despite the Commanders rallying around Heinicke and being 3-1 since he started at QB, backup QBs tend to be streaky players and Heinicke is no different in that regard. He has stretches of great play, and also stretches where you question what he was thinking during the play. If the Texans want to pull off an upset against a potential playoff team, now is the time to do it.