To win the Packers game the Texans offense must control the ball.
The chances of that are slim and none. It is a titanic struggle between a Packers defense that struggled mightily for 4 weeks until a good showing against the Eagles and a Texans offense that struggles mightily period. Until the Texans offense produces a good game against somebody’s defense the only logical conclusion is that it can’t beat anybody’s defense.
The games the Texans won were won by the defense (with special teams help in one). I expect a good defensive showing against the Packers, but not good enough. The last time Aaron Rodgers faced the Texans he threw 6 touchdown passes. I expect about half that many this time, but that’s enough.
Rodgers’ and Matthews’ injuries may keep it closer than it otherwise would be, but I expect the Packers to win. The over/under is a tougher call because it depends on just how hampered the Packers’ best offensive and defensive players are. A subpar performance by Rogers favors the under. Poor play by Mathews favors the over.
A loss by the Texans means there is a good chance of a three way tie for first place in the AFC South. How shocking is that reality when the Texans appeared fairly secure only two games ago?
Take the points and the under. Packers win 24-17…and begin sweating the AFC South. Three division games are featured in the Texans final four.