Texans vs. Jaguars – It speaks volumes when the 5-3 division leader plays the 2-6 division cellar dweller and the line opens at “Pick-em”. Worse yet, as the money came in the line moved as high as Jaguars – 3. That’s right. The division leading Texans are a 3 point dog. The number is 42.
First, it shows that the Texans are lightly regarded. If there was any confidence in the Texans they would be favored, even on the road, playing a 2-win Jaguars team.
Granted the Texans are 0-3 on the road, but opinions vary on whether it was the road venue or the opponent quality that caused the three road blowouts. Obviously, until the Texans win on the road the betting line is significantly skewed by where the game is played.
Another reason the Jags are favored is that the Jaguars have badly underperformed this season. After the draft and free agency the Jaguars were widely regarded as one of the NFL’s most improved teams. Some pundits picked them to win the AFC South. The thinking is that the talent is there, but it just hasn’t meshed. Bettors obviously think this is the game when the talent comes together.
On the flip side Texans fans hope these are the same old Jaguars, talented underperformers. Those same fans hope this will be a break-out game for the Texans offense. There are no guarantees.