Houston Texans: The Good, The Bad & The Ugly – Wrap-up

Nov 16, 2015; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Houston Texans general manager Rick Smith (left), owner Bob McNair (center) and vice chairman D. Cal McNair watch on the sidelines during a NFL football game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 16, 2015; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Houston Texans general manager Rick Smith (left), owner Bob McNair (center) and vice chairman D. Cal McNair watch on the sidelines during a NFL football game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports /
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Jan 9, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tackle Eric Fisher (72) battles Houston Texans defensive end J.J. Watt (99) during the third quarter in a AFC Wild Card playoff football game at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 9, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tackle Eric Fisher (72) battles Houston Texans defensive end J.J. Watt (99) during the third quarter in a AFC Wild Card playoff football game at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports /

Wrap-up – The Good, The Bad and The Ugly – Before doing the position group analysis I predicted a 10-6 record and at least one playoff win for the 2016 Texans.  That’s still my pick, but due to the uncertainty surrounding J.J. Watt I now think 9-7 is more likely than 11-5. What are the chances the Texans will exceed or fall sort of expectations?

The Good – Everything must go right for the Texans to reach the AFC Championship game. There is a lot of talent, but that much good fortune doesn’t happen often.

Likelihood of The Good – 10%

The Bad – The Texans miss the playoffs or lose the first playoff game. In a greatly improved AFC South there is not much margin for error. The schedule is tougher and the Texans are “all in” on Brock Osweiler.

Likelihood of The Bad – 30%

The Ugly – Lightening doesn’t strike twice. The Texans can’t collapse again…can they?

Likelihood of The Ugly – 5%

Next: Hopkins Not In Camp

The silly season is over. Pads are going on and the first preseason game is just around the corner. This wrap-up predicts, with a lot of “ifs” and “buts”, a 65% chance the Texans will win at least one playoff game. What’s your prediction – Over or Under?