Johnathan Joseph is one of the Texans best ever free agent acquisitions, but he is nearing the end of his career. Not today, but one day he will be a half step too slow, not quite quick enough to maintain coverage. There are no signs of an imminent decline…no signs except the calendar. His play in 2016 is key to the likelihood of The Good, Bad and Ugly.
The Good – For the secondary to exceed expectations Johnathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson must play to their 2015 standard, second year corner Kevin Johnson and second year at the position Andre Hal must continue their upward trajectory, and a second safety must step forward to improve safety play especially against the run. If a “strong safety” excels and J-Joe maintains the secondary is good enough to contribute to an 11-5 season.
Likelihood of The Good – 15%
The Bad – Injuries can take a toll, Joseph can slow down, strong safety can be a problem, and the front seven can be ineffective. Any of those can lead to The Bad and a 9-7 season.
Likelihood of The Bad – 10%
The Ugly – Never say “never”. Miami and Atlanta happened. The secondary and the defense performing at that level can produce a 6-10 season and big problems in H-Town.
Likelihood of The Ugly – <5%
My expectation is that this secondary is good enough to win at least one game in the playoffs. If the secondary is better than expected the playoffs could get very interesting.