Houston Texans: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly – Quarterback
By Bob Dove
The Good, Bad and Ugly scenarios are easy to envision, but their likelihood is difficult to gauge. Because we are in the silly season when there is no football activity, leaving plenty of time to prognosticate, let’s take a shot.
Of course, the team performing to form is most likely. Past performance tends to indicate future results. But if past performance always indicated future results they wouldn’t have to play the games.
I project that ” The Good” scenario is the most likely aberration from the norm. My confidence in Bill O’Brien to evaluate and coach-up quarterback talent leads to that conclusion. I peg the chance of the quarterback position over-performing expectations to the extent that it lifts the whole team at about 25%.
Given the Texans’ recent quarterback injury history and Osweiler’s tendency to hold the ball “The Bad” is also a real possibility, let’s say 15%. The bad virtually eliminates the possibility of a deep playoff run, but at least the Texans would know what they have in Tom Savage. They have to make a decision about extending his contract, trading him, or letting him go.
“The Ugly” is the least likely to occur; let’s say 5%. That’s tied almost completely on what I peg the chances to be of O’Brien completely whiffing on his pre-signing evaluation of Osweiler. In Bill we trust.
Next: Houston Texans game-by-game predictions
Obviously I’m wearing my rose-colored glasses in suggesting the Texans have only a 20 percent chance of having a disappointing or very disappointing season. It is also optimistic to project a reasonable chance of a deep playoff run. The pads don’t go on for another 5 weeks, so there is plenty of time to sound off. Which scenario do you project for the 2016 Texans?