Playoff Scenarios–Updated

Here are the updated playoff scenarios following AFC South games on Sunday.

The Playoff Machine on ESPN can be a fun and useful tool. But sometimes details can be overlooked. That is what happened to me as I played with it earlier this week prior to my post about playoff scenarios last week. I thought that all Houston needed was one win to clinch the division, but I was only modifying AFC South games. I was careless and did not see there was more to the story. I do regret the error.

With the Texans win in Tennessee, the Jaguars were eliminated. The fact they lost was just icing on the cake.

But the Colts are still alive due to their win in Miami, which was somewhat unlikely with Matt Hasselbeck getting hurt. But, they can still win the division if they get a lot of help. The first thing they need to have happen is the Broncos need to win tomorrow night. If they don’t and the Bengals win, the Texans lock up the division.

For good measure, here were the official tiebreakers for week 16:

Houston can also lock up the division in the expected ways next week–a win or a loss by the Colts. Should they both finish 8-8, it would come down to tiebreakers. They split head to head and if they both finish 8-8 then they will have the same division record. It would then go to strength of victory and strength of schedule to determine who gets the nod out of the two of them. In order for the Colts to win the division, here is what would have to happen:

A) Broncos beat Bengals Week 16 MNF game

B) Colts beat Titans in Week 17

C) Jaguars beat Texans in Week 17

D) Bills beat Jets in Week 17

E) Dolphins beat Patriots in Week 17

F) Ravens beat Bengals in Week 17

G) Falcons beat Saints in Week 17

H) Raiders beat Chiefs in Week 17

I) Broncos beat Chargers in Week 17

J) Steelers beat Browns in Week 17

Let’s hope it doesn’t come to tiebreakers and the Bengals take care of business tomorrow night, meaning the Texans can rest some key players in week 17 as they prepare for the playoffs.