The Houston Texans' last AFC South title wasn't that long ago. They last won the division crown in 2019, which is crazy to think how far they've fallen in such a short amount of time. Thank you, Deshaun Watson. Now it's 2023 and a new era of Texans' football is upon us. Can this new Houston team win the division?
I recently wrote an article predicting every Texans game this coming season and in there you'll find that I believe the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the team to beat in the AFC South. The Jaguars were only a 9 - 8 team a season ago but they got better and better as the season wore on and played well in the playoffs too.
If the Houston Texans are to pin their own worst-to-first story in 2023, they will have to find a way to at least split the head-to-head with Jacksonville. Can they do it, I think they can but I'm not overly optimistic. In my prediction article, I didn't have them winning either game against the Jaguars but if everything falls into place, I believe they have a chance.
The other obstacle for the Texans will be the AFC. It's stacked with talented teams. If the Texans are going to win enough games to beat out the Jaguars, they will have to pull off a few upset wins against some of the best the AFC has to offer. There are easily ten teams in the conference with legitimate playoff aspirations.
Despite all the hurdles and question marks on the roster, the Texans have reason to hope. That is what this article is about, five reasons to believe the Texans can take the AFC South crown.
Houston Texans new head coach, DeMeco Ryans.
Texans' new head coach, DeMeco Ryans comes over from a San Francisco 49ers team that was a dominant defensive team a season ago. They were ranked number one in the NFL in overall defense. He was initially hired onto the 49ers coaching staff in 2017 and later promoted to defensive coordinator in 2021 after Robert Saleh left for the N.Y. Jets head coaching role.
Ryans had an opportunity with the Minnesota Vikings to potentially become their head coach after his first year as the defensive coordinator with the 49ers. To Ryans' credit, he turned down the second interview, electing to remain with the 49ers. This is important because it tells me he knew he wasn't ready to lead a team, and rather than just jumping on the first train that came along, he went back and further developed himself as a coach and leader.
Rookie head coaches, much like players, are unknown. You hope you have your guy, but you never know until they take the field, then you see what they are made of. Ryans will need to learn how to manage a game now and the team, not just the defense, which can take time. But I think the Houston Texans got their guy, and the players seem ready to go to battle with him.
The Houston Texans' run game will be top-ten.
Toro Times talked about this in previous articles, but I expect the Houston Texans' run game to be very good. The addition of Devin Singletary has gone under the radar, but he brings his career 4.7 yards per carry average to the Texans.
Dameon Pierce averaged 4.3 yards in his rookie year, which isn't bad, but Singletary's lowest mark of any season was 4.4. I'm not saying Singletary should start over Pierce, but what I am saying is neither should be considered the "starter", both will start, and they will likely get a similar number of carries.
Both backs are solid receivers out of the backfield as well, Pierce recorded 30 receptions last season and Singletary had 38, adding to his career total of 145 receptions. Pierce brings a bit more size and power, whereas Singletary brings some wiggle.
The Texans' offensive line should be much better in 2023 as well, with the addition of Shaq Mason and second-round draft pick Juice Scruggs, we should see vast improvements in this area. The upgraded line will only help the Texans' rushing attack, but the new additions will need time to gel.
The AFC South is weak.
We talked about this before as well. The AFC might be loaded but the AFC South is easily the weakest division in the conference. I've said before if the Texans played in the NFC, they'd have a real shot at a playoff spot. Lucky for them, they can earn a playoff bid by taking the weak AFC South.
The Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts will probably be starting rookies this season, at least at some point. Ryan Tannehill could start for the Titans early in the season, but he's at the end of his career, and I've never been a fan of his play. Whether it's Tannehill, Malik Willis, or rookie Will Levis, the Titans don't have much at the quarterback spot.
I know the Texans are starting a rookie quarterback too, but here is the thing, I'm far more confident in Stroud right now than I am of Levis and Richardson. I do like the Colts rookie, Anthony Richardson, but I think he's got a bigger learning curve than Stroud. We'll get more into Stroud later.
The bottom line here is the Texans will sweep the Titans, and I think the more likely scenario is they split with the Colts. If they can split with the Jaguars, that puts them at a 4 - 2 division record and in good shape to maybe get the AFC South title.
C.J. Stroud is an extremely accurate passer.
Stroud played two full seasons at Ohio State as the starting quarterback and we know the numbers were really good but the one thing that stands out is his career 69.3 % completion rate. This is outstanding accuracy and I know people are saying it was the uber-talented receivers he played with but as a quarterback, you still have to be accurate to get those guys the ball.
Stroud's number one asset is his accuracy, and in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik's scheme, accuracy is key. If Stroud can learn to process his defensive reads and go through his progressions, he should be fine. There are ways to help a young quarterback so he doesn't have too much on his plate at once, which is where the run game comes into play.
The Texans did a great job signing players that will help Stroud in his development. Robert Woods is a savvy receiver and solid route runner. He'll be where Stroud expects him to be, and he'll quickly learn he can trust Woods. Dalton Schultz is in that same mold and will be a great outlet for Stroud when the play breaks down.
Lastly, the signing of Case Keenum is big. Every young quarterback should have a veteran quarterback to lean on that first season. Patrick Mahomes had Alex Smith, and Josh Allen had Matt Barkley. Veteran quarterback mentors don't necessarily have to be pro-bowl-type players, but having been in the league for a while can help a young quarterback learn from them.
Will Anderson Jr. takes the Texans' pass rush to another level.
The Houston Texans recorded 39 total sacks in 2022, putting them 20th in the NFL. Will Anderson Jr. will change that and record double-digit sacks as a rookie. If he can do that and the Texans record just ten more sacks on the season, that would have been good for top five in the league.
Of course, we can't take last season, add ten sacks to that number, and expect everything else in the league to fall into place. I do expect the Texans' pass rush to be considerably better. This is one area where the Texans can disrupt and cause problems for the division, particularly with the Titans and Colts with their rookie quarterbacks.
Even the great Tom Brady can be slowed by a great pass rush, as we witnessed when the New York Giants, led by Eli Manning, defeated the Patriots in the Super Bowl or when Patrick Mahomes was running for his life against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a couple of seasons ago.
An Improved pass rush can be a great equalizer and makes life much easier for the secondary, which should be better, particularly with free-agent signee Jimmie Ward and year two for Derek Stingley Jr.
The biggest of all these reasons is undoubtedly the play of C.J. Stroud. It's also the biggest question mark but the one that can completely derail the season if he plays poorly. Even if the Texans can have a solid run game, a great pass rush, and Ryans proves to be a good coach, if Stroud can't get it done, all the other stuff won't matter.