The 2023 Houston Texans are beginning a new era of Texans football, with a new head coach and a franchise quarterback. Will it translate into wins right away, not likely but who knows. I’ve seen lots of talk about how Brian Daboll turned the Giants around in one year, the difference there is, regardless of your opinion of Daniel Jones, he wasn’t a rookie quarterback.
We don't know if C.J. Stroud will start at the beginning of the season, somewhere in the middle, or at all in 2023, but that won’t stop us from having fun with the NFL’s schedule release and trying to predict the outcomes. For this week-by-week prediction, I’m assuming Stroud will start Week One.
The early predictions aren’t favorable either, playing in the AFC, loaded with franchise quarterbacks and Super Bowl-contending teams. The Texans have the benefit of playing a last-place schedule but will still have five games against playoff teams from a season ago, two of which are their division rival, Jacksonville.
On the flip side, they have the advantage of playing in a very weak AFC South, where only Jacksonville posted a winning record of 9 – 8. The Titans could be without their stud running back, Derrick Henry, if the trade rumors are true, and the Colts are starting over with a rookie quarterback.
Here is the Houston Texans' weekly schedule for the 2023 season.
- Week 1 (Sunday 09/10) - at Baltimore Ravens
- Week 2 (Sunday 09/17) - vs Indianapolis Colts
- Week 3 (Sunday 09/24) - at Jacksonville Jaguars
- Week 4 (Sunday 10/01) - vs Pittsburgh Steelers
- Week 5 (Sunday 10/08) - at Atlanta Falcons
- Week 6 (Sunday 10/15) - vs New Orleans Saints
- Week 7 Bye
- Week 8 (Sunday 10/29) at Carolina Panthers
- Week 9 (Sunday 11/05) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Week 10 (Sunday 11/12) - at Cincinnati Bengals
- Week 11 (Sunday 11/19) - vs Arizona Cardinals
- Week 12 (Sunday 11/26) - vs Jacksonville Jaguars
- Week 13 (Sunday 12/03) - vs Denver Broncos
- Week 14 (Sunday 12/10) - at New York Jets
- Week 15 (Sunday 12/17) - at Tennessee Titans
- Week 16 (Sunday 12/24) - vs Cleveland Browns
- Week 17 (Sunday 12/31) - vs Tennessee Titans
- Week 18 (TBD) - at Indianapolis Colts
Game-by-Game predictions for 2023 Texans schedule release
Week 1 @ Baltimore Ravens
With the signing of Lamar Jackson, the Ravens have their franchise quarterback for the next five years and they added some new weapons. Odell Beckham Jr. and Zay Flowers were added to the receiver corps, along with tight end Mark Andrews and running back J.K. Dobbins. On paper, this looks to be a solid offense, led by first-year offensive coordinator, Todd Monken.
With Monken running the offense, the Ravens should be more explosive in the passing game. Monken likes to utilize his tight ends, creating mismatches, and incorporates an up-tempo style too. Are the Texans going to be ready for what the Ravens bring to the table? Not likely, not yet as the Ravens are too good at this point. 31 – 20, Loss.
Week 2 vs Indianapolis Colts
In a divisional matchup, anything can happen. Both of the teams are likely starting rookie quarterbacks. Anthony Richardson for the Colts and C.J. Stroud for the Texans. For the Texans, they have so many new faces on the roster and will need time to gel; however, the Colts are returning many of the same players, including other-worldly running back, Jonathan Taylor.
Despite this, the Texans’ run defense should be much improved from a season ago after allowing the Colts starting backs to run for 275 total yards. This included 114 yards from Zack Moss, a midseason addition from Buffalo. The Texans won this series last year though, tying the first game and winning the second by a score of 32 – 31. 31 – 27, Win.
Week 3 @ Jacksonville Jaguars
I’m sold on the Jaguars heading into the 2023 season. I think Trevor Lawrence continues to get better and develop into one of the top quarterbacks in an already quarterback-stacked conference. I don’t see the Texans getting blown out like they did last season in the final meeting of these two teams, but I also don’t see them beating Jacksonville.
The Jaguars have a lot of talent on the field and Lawrence, coming into year three, in the same system and coaching staff, will prove to be too much for the rebuilding Texans. Give the boys one more season under Coach Ryans and a year to develop Stroud, while adding more talent and Houston might compete for the division in 2024. But until then, it’s Jacksonville in the AFC South. 27 – 14, Loss.
Week 4 vs Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers seem to be on their way back and Kenny Pickett was better than most thought he would be in year one. The defense should be solid, with a healthy T.J. Watt and the additions of free agent signee, Patrick Peterson and second-round draft pick Joey Porter Jr.
The team also took steps to bolster its offensive line when they drafted Broderick Jones 14th overall in the 2023 draft. The Steelers have excellent weapons at the skill positions as well, with wide receivers Diontae Johnson and George Pickens, along with stud running back Najee Harris.
Can the Texans new look defense matchup with all those weapons and can the offense protect their quarterback against the relentless Watt? 27 – 17, loss.
Week 5 @ Atlanta Falcons
Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson could become a stellar trio in the NFL, my worry is the guy behind center, Desmond Ridder. We don’t know what to expect from him in year two. The Falcons seem to be high on him and ready to roll with him into 2023 though.
The Texans are in a similar spot as far as the quarterback. We don’t know what to expect from C.J. Stroud, and that’s assuming he starts. I have all the confidence in the world in the Texans run game with the additions on the offensive line and running backs, Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary. I’m not as confident in the passing game with a rookie quarterback and Robert Woods currently penciled in as the number one receiver, along with the possible return of John Metchie. 24 – 23, Loss.
Week 6 vs New Orleans Saints
The Saints come marching into NRG Stadium to face the Houston Texans in this cross-conference matchup. The Saints finished last season with a record of 7 – 10; however, they had a top-five defense and if not for issues at the quarterback position, likely would have won a few more games. Now the Saints have their unquestioned starting quarterback in Derek Carr.
New Orleans might be without their star back, Alvin Kamara, depending on the resolution of his legal issues. Also, how good will Michael Thomas be, after missing most of the last two seasons with injuries? All that said, I think the Saints’ defense proves too much for the young C.J. Stroud and company, as the Saints get this one. 21 – 13, Loss.
Week 8 @ Carolina Panthers
The Panthers had the first overall pick of the 2023 draft and selected Alabama quarterback, Bryce Young. This is a battle of the top two quarterbacks selected, between Young and Texans rookie quarterback, C.J. Stroud. Who will come out on top, who has the better team around them?
Looking at these two teams, they are very similar with rookie quarterbacks, solid backfields, and unproven receiving corps. The defenses for both these teams will be their strength as well. This will be a fun game to watch but tough to call the winner, so I’m going with the home team on this one. 21 – 17, Loss.
Week 9 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is without Tom Brady now and appears that Baker Mayfield will step in, this being his fourth team. Tampa Bay struggled last season even with Brady at the helm and this team appears to be in a pseudo-rebuild, though they still have star wideouts, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
The Bucs have lost more than they gained in free agency and though a number of the players resigned to stay on, they lost players like tight end Cameron Brate, safety Mike Edwards, running back Leonard Fournette, and corner Sean Murphy-Bunting, not to mention Tom Brady. The biggest loss might be Shaq Mason. 24 – 17, Win.
Week 10 @ Cincinnati Bengals
The Texans are simply not ready for the Bengals just yet. I think the Texans are headed in the right direction and have the right coaches in place, but their talent level does not match up with Cincinnati's. The Bengals boast one of if not the best receiving corps in the NFL and one of the top quarterbacks as well.
The Bengals are solid at getting after the quarterback too, so the Texans will have their work cut out for them. Can the new-look offensive line protect their quarterback, will they be able to open holes to allow the Texans to control the game with their rushing attack? Will they be able to, at a minimum, contain the Bengals’ passing attack? Unfortunately, the Texans aren’t ready. 33 – 20, Loss.
Week 11 vs Arizona Cardinals
The Arizona Cardinals are in a rebuild themselves and while they have their established franchise quarterback, Kyler Murray may not be available. Murray suffered a torn ACL on December 14, 2022. Not to mention, the strong possibility the Cardinals will no longer have DeAndre Hopkins. On paper, the Texans appear to be the better team here, even though there is a lot still to prove for many of the new rookies, they should be able to come away with a win here. 23 – 10, Win.
Week 12 vs Jacksonville Jaguars
The Texans won the first matchup last season against the Jaguars, but the Jags turned it on down the stretch, going on a late-season tear that included a 31 – 3 drubbing of the Texans. I don't think they get steamrolled like that again but are they ready to truly compete with the Jaguars?
Coming into 2023, Jacksonville is hoping to take that next step in their ascension, while the Texans enter year one of the Stroud/Ryans era. I think the Jaguars are too far ahead of Houston at this point and until otherwise proven, they are the better team. 30 – 20, Loss.
Week 13 vs Denver Broncos
Last season, this was a team many believed to be a quarterback away from Super Bowl contention after acquiring Russell Wilson in an offseason blockbuster trade. Things did not go as expected and despite a top-seven defense, the Broncos limped along and finished with a 5 – 12 record.
Now they have new leadership in Super Bowl-winning head coach Sean Payton. The Broncos also added a couple of key pieces on their offensive line but will the new additions in free agency and the draft be enough? Can Coach Payton right the offensive ship in Denver or will it be more of the same in 2023? I think he does. 23 – 20, Loss.
Week 14 @ New York Jets
On paper, the Texans are once again over-matched here. The Jets were a top-five defense a season ago and are poised to do the same in 2023. The big difference coming into this year, Zack Wilson is no longer the starting quarterback and Mike White is out. In their place, one of the best to ever play the game, Aaron Rodgers. While there is still some unknown here with how much juice the 40-year-old quarterback has, there isn’t much doubt there is still some there.
Rodgers easily takes the Jets from a good team to a Super Bowl contender. This has kind of been the theme here, but the Texans aren’t there yet, they are simply not ready for the gauntlet that is the AFC. There is such a discrepancy between the AFC and the NFC, the Texans would be a playoff contender if they resided in the NFC. But they don’t. 24 – 13, Loss.
Week 15 @ Tennessee Titans
The Titans will be the doormat of the AFC South. Tannehill is not the guy and has limited weapons in the passing game. They’ve also lost some talent on the offensive line and Henry may not be with the team but if he is, I don’t see him having the same impact on the field we’ve seen in years past.
The defense might be ok, but I’m not sold here either. The Titans will not be good in 2023 and wouldn’t shock me if they end up drafting somewhere in the top five in the 2024 draft. They have Malik Willis and newly drafted Will Levis and if the season falls apart early, I can see Levis taking over in 2023. The Titans might be in the running to land the best wide receiver in next year’s class, Marvin Harrison Jr. Until then, they get dominating in the division. 27 – 17, Win.
Week 16 vs Cleveland Browns
It seems every year, the Browns have a solid roster and on paper, should be better than their record indicates, yet they managed only seven wins in 2022. Deshaun Watson was not good in his first year, so will year two be the return of the old Watson that led the Texans to a playoff win in 2020?
The Browns will be tough to gauge, especially at this time of the year. They still have one of the best backs in the NFL, Nick Chubb, as well as wide receiver, Amari Cooper. Defensively, they were middle of the pack last year and I don’t see anything that will change that for 2023. As far as Watson goes, until he proves otherwise, he’s not the same player he once was. 27 – 14, Win.
Week 17 vs Tennessee Titans
The Titans are in a similar place as the Texans, but I think Houston is already ahead in the rebuilding process. Maybe Tannehill is the starter, but it's possible Levis takes over by this point in the season. Additionally, it’s a real possibility that star running back, Derrick Henry won’t be on the team. Even if that’s not the case, the Texans are overall the better team now.
This one is a home game for the Texans and despite losing at home last season to the Titans, that won’t happen again on Houston’s home field. The Titans simply don’t have any proven weapons outside of Henry, if he’s on the team. As I said, it won’t matter. 30 – 17, Win.
Week 18 @ Indianapolis Colts
I’ve got the Texans winning at home against the Colts but I’m not sure they can sweep the season matchups. The Colts may have their franchise quarterback as well and once the season starts and we see how these young quarterbacks play, our opinions could drastically change on these predictions. The Colts still have Jonathon Taylor and Michael Pittman, one of the better offensive lines in football and they have some solid players on the defensive side as well.
The Texans were able to play the Colts very well last year in both matchups, but I have the two teams splitting their head-to-head games. With the home team winning in each. 27 – 23, Loss.