Do the Houston Texans already have a number one wide receiver on the roster?
Many were shocked when the Houston Texans passed on drafting a wide receiver in the first 65 selections of the NFL draft. Fans are clamoring for the Texans to take a player with the upside of becoming a number one wide receiver. When Deandre Hopkins was traded from Houston, fans have been waiting for the Texans to get another one.
At times it looked like Brandin Cooks could be that guy, but he didn't want to be that guy in Houston and was promptly shipped north to the Dallas Cowboys last month. The Texans drafted receiving options during day two of previous NFL drafts. Players such as Braxton Miller, DeVier Posey, Jacoby Jones, and Jabar Gaffney were supposed to turn into threats on offense. Over time, they became wideouts that flamed out and never became a consistent threat.
The jury is still out on recently selected wide receivers John Metchie and Nico Collins. Metchie has yet to play an NFL snap due to his battle with Leukemia. The hope for this season is we see what we have in the former Crimson Tide star. Collins is entering his third season, and this is a make-or-break year. This season has the potential for Collins to prove himself as a bona fide number-one option on an NFL offense. Let's explore why.
His physical traits
Nico Collins has the exact build you want from a number-one wide receiver. He has size at 6 '4" and weighs 218 pounds. He's fast, as his 4.45, 40-yard dash is faster than DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Williams, new Texans rookie Tank Dell and even Stefon Diggs, to name a few. His 34⅛ inch arms and vertical jump of 37½ inches make him an ideal deep shot and red zone threat.
Had Collins been targeted more in college, he could’ve easily been a top 50 selection. Per PFF, half of Collins's total snaps in college were spent putting his frame to good use run blocking.
Several draft analysts pounded the table for TCU wide receiver Quentin Johnston due in part to his size and speed. Johnston stands at 6 '3" and 208 pounds, with a 4.49, 40-yard dash. Collins is bigger and faster than Johnston. Collins also has shown consistently on tape his ability to make contested catches, and Johnston often tries to make catches with his body, which led to drops throughout his collegiate career.
We can best compare Nico Collins to current Chargers wide receiver Mike Williams. Williams was lauded for his frame and contested catchability coming out of Clemson, which was a big reason why he was selected in the top ten. Williams is 6 '4" and weighs 215 pounds. He ran a 4.59, 40-yard dash but has made his living in the NFL as a big-play threat.
If those other receivers could be drafted in the first round and lauded for their large catch radius, speed, and jump ability, Why can't we look at Nico Collins as having similarly elite traits?
The upside of having a quarterback
It is no secret that Collins's former quarterback, Davis Mills, was not getting the job done. That's why the Texans selected Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud at number two overall in the NFL draft. Stroud showed throughout his collegiate career to be the most accurate passer in college. We did an extensive scouting report on the former Buckeye that breaks down three of Stroud's most telling games and you consistently see accurate throws to all levels of the field.
Collins has been plagued by some of the worst quarterback play in NFL history in his first two seasons. Per PFF, of the former Wolverine's 37 catches last year, 12 were heavily contested catches— a whopping 32.4%.
Further evidence of this can be seen by Collins's overall grade of 92.9 on intermediate catches, despite only catching nine out of 22 deep passes. Why were only 39% of the intermediate passes caught from a receiver with zero drops? The quality of the passes thrown was subpar. Davis Mills was graded as the worst starting quarterback on intermediate throws by PFF. The next worst was Zach Wilson.
The quarterback change will help Collins’s elite hands shine.
When we compare Davis Mills to C.J. Stroud, there is a vast difference in ability, and the numbers are eye-popping.
Watching CJ Stroud's tape at Ohio State, there's a consistent theme of laying the ball out to his wide receivers facing one-on-one coverage. Game after game, Stroud gave his receivers a chance to win in one-on-one scenarios. His elite precision typically led to easier contested catches. PFF has a stat called big-time throws, or BTT. A big-time throw is defined as a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window.
CJ Stroud led the entire draft class with 29 big-time throws. Most notably, eight of them against the Georgia Bulldogs in the college football playoffs. His adjusted NFL passer rating by PFF was a whopping 125. I think Stroud is going to target Collins a whole lot more than Collins ever has been in one-on-one situations and give Collins the best chance to show off his elite contested catch ability. This could bear a ton of fruit in the red zone, where Collins was underutilized to a fault so far in his career.
The elite trait Collins already possesses
Pro football focus does a great job of paying close attention to every detail possible and grading it by a scale they have made. Their reports are typically purchased by scouts and teams for their extensive evaluations. Any statistics you see in this slide will be from viewing Nico Collins's profile on their website.
Nico Collins has some of the best hands in the entire NFL and has never dropped a pass in his NFL career. When scouting wide receivers, that's the first thing you look for. Collins can catch, and we have already discussed how he can run well and use his body. He needs to put it all together and stay healthy because when targeted, he is one of the best in the league at winning jump balls.
NFL wide receivers who caught nine or more contested catches last season, Nico Collins ranks number one with a 75% catch rate. That is higher than Justin Jefferson, Cooper Kupp, DK Metcalf, and Mike Evans. Those wideouts had more opportunities and total contested catches, but Collins was not given the same amount of opportunities. Collins was tied for the league lead with zero drops on the season, too.
Nico Collins showed in college and the pros his ability to win contested catches and be a viable red zone target. He has shown as a pro his ability for the big plays when targeted and being a reliable intermediate option in the middle. He utilizes his frame and length to box out defenders on the sidelines and in the middle of the field. It's Collins' strong hands that give him the potential to be great.
Collins is a sure-handed receiver but was plagued by injuries and poor quarterback play, which we already discussed. With the addition of C.J. Stroud in town and a clean bill of health, the argument for Collins having a breakout season become easier to make. My prediction is Collins will end the year with 85 catches for just over a thousand yards and nine touchdowns.