With the Houston Texans season looking like it’ll end in obtaining the first overall selection; and their need for a QB in this upcoming draft, we need to evaluate Ohio State’s quarterback CJ Stroud and whether or not he would be a good fit.
Stroud has had a very decorated time at Ohio State. In 2021 he was named the Big Ten Offensive Player of The Year as well as a Heisman Trophy Finalist. He also set the Ohio State record with 573 passing yards in a game, more on that later. Stroud offers an impressive blend of arm talent, size, natural instincts, and anticipation as a thrower.
His biggest weakness so far has been his lower body consistency – his footwork is shaky at best, often throwing off his back heels, and he wastes a lot of motion dancing in the pocket which leads to off-balanced throws and a decline in his accuracy.
CJ Stroud A System Quarterback?
My initial thought is that CJ Stroud has benefited from having an elite receiving core to throw to, a quick RPO system, and a light schedule. I think Stroud has a very talented arm but will need the right coaching and system to turn him into a long-term NFL starter.
Since being the starter at Ohio State, CJ has gotten to throw to future first-round wide receivers Marvin Harrison Jr., Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. This is most likely the most talented receiver group he will ever throw to and that means that when we look at his tape, we need to look at it through the same lens as we graded Joe Burrow and Mac Jones- who each had at least two future 1st round wideouts at their disposals.
Per Sports Reference:
CMP% Atts Yards TDs Ints RTG
Joe Burrow 2019 76.3% 527 5,671 60 6 202
Mac Jones 2020 77.4% 404 4,500 41 4 203.1
CJ Stroud 2021 71.9% 441 4,435 44 6 186.6
Naturally,CJ Stroud’s stats were all below Mac and Joe’s, and some of that is due to the sheer talent of the Alabama and LSU teams he is being compared to, but a few statistics do stick out as alarming. For starters, CJ turned the ball over more and completed a lower percentage of his passes. Where I think we will see this play out in the tapes to follow are that he can struggle at times with ball placement, process speed, decision-making, and timing. Historically, a quarterback’s completion percentage gets worse when they enter into the NFL, and dropping from 71.9% could be vastly detrimental for the franchise he ends up with; but this is mainly an indicator of some of his flaws, most gravely his accuracy.
Joe and Mac also faced better defenses and provided big-time moments in big-time games against big-time defenses. I think CJ’s stats may have been inflated by the previously mentioned factors. That being said, I think CJ Stroud can turn into a successful NFL QB with the right system and situation. Is that the Houston Texans?
Obviously, this is CJ Strouds’s worst game as a CFB QB so it will have more negatives than positives. From the very first play of the game, his lack of progressional decision-making was evident. The system he is in employs a lot of 1-read and RPO passes. This makes the decision-making part of his game relatively easy. On the very first play, CJ stares down one receiver who is very well covered; eventually, he throws it out of bounds above that receiver. That is a lost play.
On the fourth pass of the game, Stroud makes a great pass to Harrison Jr. (who makes an even greater catch). What stood out to me in this play however was how antsy Stroud was in the pocket. In this play, with a clean pocket, Stroud takes 6-steps backward and throws off his back foot. That’s less than ideal.
At the 4:00 minute mark, you’ll see the potential Stroud has oozing out. With a clean pocket (and his awareness of that), CJ steps up and rips a perfect deep ball for an impressive touchdown.
More evidence that he would thrive in a system that protects him well as well as provides some talent to throw to.
Pros: when he sets his feet and gears up he throws an immaculate deep ball, puts good zip on the ball, you can see the arm talent when he lets it rip
Cons: jittery in the pocket and creating false pressures in his head, very few big-time throws (most of his throws were short quick reads), consistently throwing off his back foot despite no defender in his face, rarely looks past his first read, poor ball placement, trying to do much led to a turnover
CJ Stroud’s 2021 Rose Bowl vs. Utah
Overall a really clean game from Stroud, as he was carving up the Utah defense throughout the game. While he benefitted from a ton of yards after the catch, this game was an absolute surgical performance by Stroud.
His typical flaws – throwing off his backfoot, locking onto his first read; were still there, but all of the traits people love about Stroud: his arm strength, deep ball touch and accuracy, compact throwing motion, and the pace in which he operates the offense, were on full display this game.
Stroud should not be discredited for having an offensive line that did a good job all game protecting him, as it allowed us to see what Stroud can do when given time to operate.
NFL franchises watch this game and get to dream about what could be for the coming years for them.
Pros: beautiful deep ball accuracy and touch, quick decision making good pocket awareness and timing on passes, incredible touch on his deep passes, solid mechanics from his feet on up throughout the game, went through progressions well
Cons: starred down his first read and stayed locked onto them, failed to protect himself from hits, still some unnecessary throws off his backfoot,
Bottom Line For The Houston Texans And CJ Stroud
Overall, Stroud is a good NFL QB prospect who possesses great arm talent, size, and instincts that coaches love because of the potential present. That being said, Stroud could struggle mightily in the NFL if his footwork, decisiveness, and development of his play progression do not improve.
He would be best suited to sitting his first year and being a second-year starter. A preference for CJ would be that he goes to an offense with an established group of skilled players. As mentioned previously, the more tape we watch the more evidence shows us that he would thrive in a system that protects him well as well as provides some talent to throw to. While that statement might have you thinking, “Wouldn’t every quarterback thrive in that situation?”, I am using it more to set expecations for his rookie season.
This leads me to his ideal fit and one of the worst fits for him.
Ideal fit: Detroit Lions
Bad fit: Houston Texans
Detroit represents the best-case scenario for CJ due to the talent already there (Jameson Williams, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jamaal Williams, and Deandre Swift), the potential to add more (a mid-first-round selection that could turn into Stroud’s running mate Smith-Njigba or Notre Dame’s Michael Mayer, as well as the opportunity to sit behind Jared Goff and learn for a year.
Going to a team like the Houston Texans, which is most likely losing its best receiver in Brandin Cooks this offseason, would present a potentially devastating fit for Stroud. The Texans need help everywhere, and Stroud is not the kind of playmaker that could mask some of their issues or bring up the roster around him.
CJ Stroud has the ability to turn into a good professional quarterback, and the Texans have an opportunity in this year’s upcoming draft, but doing both these things together does not look like it would be possible. It would be best for both parties to stay away from each other.